The pound has lost -12.6% of it's value (against the U.S. dollar) year-to-date as U.K. growth has slowed.
Takeaway: The 10s/2s yield spread is a classic #LateCycle economic indicator that's been signaling global #GrowthSlowing for some time now.
It's simple. Around the world the sovereign bond 10s/2s yield spread is screaming global #GrowthSlowing. While central planners plug their ears, here are four charts of the yields spread, and their year-to-date compression, from the U.K., U.S., Germany and Japan that plainly illustrate the dour economic outlook.
We're just measuring and mapping the cycle and the vast majority of economic indicators are flashing red.
In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner discusses some disconcerting new developments related to Australia’s housing bubble.
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Takeaway: "You’d have to go back to July '07 for the last time delinquency rates had risen by 30bps y-o-y. And we know where the world stood then."
In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner dissects the credit cycle and specifically the detereorating data points embedded in credit card lender Capital One's business.
"Capital One is the largest U.S. subprime lender out there. Subprime lending, defined by the credit card lending industry as FICO sub-660, makes up roughly a third of their book. This chart [see below] shows the year-over-year rate of change in delinquencies in their U.S. credit card business.
As you can see, as of the latest data, delinquencies are up 35 bps year-over-year and its actually been accelerating now, really for the better part of the last year. In fact, as you go back a bit further, it bottomed out in early 2015 and, for the better part of the last 18 months, was getting less good but is now decidedly deteriorating.
Just to give you a bit of a time reference point, you’d have to go back to July of 2007 for the last time that delinquency rates had risen by 30bps year-over-year. And we know where the world stood in July of 2007.
So its not just that the market is at a toppy valuation, which it is. You’ve also got de facto indications that credit quality is deteriorating from Capital One, the largest US subprime lender in the country. Again, beware the siren song. I would not be chasing the market up here."
In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the media hype surrounding virtual reality versus "the next big thing [that] may already be sitting in your pocket: augmented reality." Howe breaks down the key takeaways and explains the broader implications for investors.
Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.
Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products.
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