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This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe

Takeaway: The 10s/2s yield spread is a classic #LateCycle economic indicator that's been signaling global #GrowthSlowing for some time now.

This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe - traffic light red

 

It's simple. Around the world the sovereign bond 10s/2s yield spread is screaming global #GrowthSlowingWhile central planners plug their ears, here are four charts of the yields spread, and their year-to-date compression, from the U.K., U.S., Germany and Japan that plainly illustrate the dour economic outlook.

1. U.K.

This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe - uk 10s2s

2. U.S.

This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe - us 10s2s

3. Germany

This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe - germany 10s2s

4. Japan

This Classic #LateCycle Indicator Is Flashing Red Around The Globe - japan 10s2s

It's not rocket science.

 

We're just measuring and mapping the cycle and the vast majority of economic indicators are flashing red.


Australia’s Housing Bubble Is A Massive Powder Keg

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner discusses some disconcerting new developments related to Australia’s housing bubble. 

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

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Capital One: Beware The Siren Song

Takeaway: "You’d have to go back to July '07 for the last time delinquency rates had risen by 30bps y-o-y. And we know where the world stood then."

Capital One: Beware The Siren Song - denial cartoon 09.28.2015 normal

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner dissects the credit cycle and specifically the detereorating data points embedded in credit card lender Capital One's business.

 

"Capital One is the largest U.S. subprime lender out there. Subprime lending, defined by the credit card lending industry as FICO sub-660, makes up roughly a third of their book. This chart [see below] shows the year-over-year rate of change in delinquencies in their U.S. credit card business.

 

Click image to enlarge

Capital One: Beware The Siren Song - capital one

 

As you can see, as of the latest data, delinquencies are up 35 bps year-over-year and its actually been accelerating now, really for the better part of the last year. In fact, as you go back a bit further, it bottomed out in early 2015 and, for the better part of the last 18 months, was getting less good but is now decidedly deteriorating.

 

Just to give you a bit of a time reference point, you’d have to go back to July of 2007 for the last time that delinquency rates had risen by 30bps year-over-year. And we know where the world stood in July of 2007.

 

So its not just that the market is at a toppy valuation, which it is. You’ve also got de facto indications that credit quality is deteriorating from Capital One, the largest US subprime lender in the country. Again, beware the siren song. I would not be chasing the market up here."


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.64%
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About Everything | Augmented Reality: Better Than Virtual?

About Everything | Augmented Reality: Better Than Virtual? - pokemon go

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the media hype surrounding virtual reality versus "the next big thing [that] may already be sitting in your pocket: augmented reality." Howe breaks down the key takeaways and explains the broader implications for investors.


Daily Market Data Dump: Monday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - equity markets 8 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - sector performance 8 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - volume 8 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - rates and spreads 8 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - currencies 8 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - commodities 8 15


Got #GrowthSlowing? These Poor Central Planners Just Don't Get It

Takeaway: The 10s/2s yield spread was down -6bps on the week & down -41bps year-to-date. Got #GrowthSlowing?

Another “scare” of “rising 10yr yields” met with another ramp in long-term bonds last week; we’re up to $13.4T in negative yielding bonds globally now (vs. 13.1T last wk) as global growth continues to look like Yield Spreads (slowing); UST 10yr down another beep to 1.50% this morning and the USA Yield Spread testing YTD lows at 80bps (short Banks #reiterated).

 

Got #GrowthSlowing? These Poor Central Planners Just Don't Get It - 10yr2yr 8 15

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by the Hedgeye Macro team and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


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