JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

“The bud of victory is always in the truth.”

-Benjamin Harrison

A PARTY DIVIDING?: Following one of his campaign’s worst weeks yet, Donald Trump claims he won’t change his strategy or alter his temperament even slightly. His Second Amendment comments were beyond the pale - overshadowing yet another headline on Hillary Clinton’s State Department emails and influence from the Clinton Foundation - and will likely cost him more party members and donors as some are now making their support of Hillary Clinton very public. The list continues to grow - this time including ME Senator Susan Collins saying she would not vote for Trump. In addition to Collins, and other high-profile former Bush Administration defections, a letter signed by 50 senior Republican national security officials warned that a Trump presidency would “risk our country’s national security and well-being.”  

TRUMP ECON 101: Amid protesters’ interruptions, Trump’s economic speech to the Detroit Economic Club was a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly. The plan stitched together old ideas from the left and the right, including a large dose of tax cuts mixed with outdated protectionism, reformed conservative social policy and a deregulation plan that would make Wall Street cheer. Will the unusual mix of policy captivate those outside of Trump’s constituencies and stall his recent slide in the polls and recapture the momentum that led him to the nomination? Clinton is expected to lay out her rebuttal later this afternoon.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS: It’s hard to dismiss the fact that Clinton is leading by double digits in most national polls and now with just 90 days until election day, Trump still has not spent a dime on television advertising, even as Clinton continues to flood the airwaves with more than $50 million in ad spending. It's not for lack of money as the Trump campaign raised $80 million in July and finished the month with $37 million cash-on-hand. We’re stymied that he hasn’t tried to make up any lost ground not even posting during the Olympics as Clinton drops $5.5 million on prime time ads.

GIVE ME FIVE: Five candidates are now in the presidential race with Evan McMullin, a CIA veteran and former House Republican policy adviser, launching his independent bid amid angst over Trump and his policy agenda. McMullin, a longtime anti-Trump advocate, believes he has the funding ties and conservative support he needs to be competitive in the race.  Many obstacles exist for third-party candidates entering the race at this juncture, but it’s still likely that McMullin will pull votes from Trump if he makes the ballot; couple that with votes for Gary Johnson and Trump’s disadvantage becomes even greater.

FREEZE SEPTEMBER SEQUEL WILL HAVE SIMILAR ENDING: NO AGREEMENT: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle shared his insight on why the target of freeze talk is sentiment, not production; and how Saudi Arabia and Iran will not be able to come to an agreement because the September timing is too soon. You can read his piece here.

PENTAGON OCO FUNDING TAKEN HOSTAGE IN WASHINGTON: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner shared his thoughts on Overseas Contingency Operations funding and how it has become a game of political football in the debate between increasing all federal spending or only defense spending. You can read his piece here.

NICE INCREASE IN REIMBURSEMENT FOR SNFS BUT FOCUS ON VALUE-BASED PROGRAM: Our Healthcare Policy Emily Evans shared her insight on the Skilled Nursing Facility Value-Based Purchasing Program’s increase in reimbursements and how it’s not a big negative in the short term, but does represent a challenge for providers. You can read her piece here.

COPYRIGHT OFFICE OBJECTS TO FCC SET-TOP PLAN: Our Telecommunications-Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur shared his insight on the Copyright Office’s legal doubts about the FCC plan to unleash retail set-top competition and why cable operators and STB vendors should benefit. You can read his piece here.

ISLAMIC TERROR: SHRINKING CALIPHATES, EXPANDING NARRATIVES: Our Geopolitical Analyst Dan Christman shared his insight on the shrinking caliphates in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, and the increase in jihadist adherent attacks around the globe. You can read his piece here.