prev

Europe Imploding? Yup. Political Risk Rising Too

Takeaway: We remain bearish on the EUR/USD and reiterate our Q3 Macro theme of #EuropeImploding.

Europe Imploding? Yup. Political Risk Rising Too - facepalm

 

In Europe, political risk remains front and center.

 

The latest poll indicates that a third Spanish election would do nothing to resolve the political impasse.

 

Separately, Italy’s high court has approved a constitutional referendum, setting in motion a vote from Italians on whether to strip the Senate of most of its powers in order to streamline legislation. If defeated, PM Renzi has vowed to resign.

 

Uncertainty breeds contempt and contempt breeds investors heading for the exits, like they have been for the past year (see below). Remember, this says nothing about the slow moving trainwreck that is European economic data. We remain bearish on the EUR/USD and reiterate our Q3 Macro theme of #EuropeImploding

 

Europe Imploding? Yup. Political Risk Rising Too - europeimploding 2

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe: The Gig Economy is Alive and Growing

About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe: The Gig Economy is Alive and Growing - gig econ

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the so-called "gig economy."


OPEC Oil Production "Freeze" Talk Will Have Similar Ending ... No Agreement

Takeaway: Target of Freeze Talk is sentiment not production. Saudi Arabia and Iran will not agree because the September timing is too soon.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle on the resurfacing of OPEC oil production "freeze" speculation. For more information about our institutional research contact sales@hedgeye.com.

 

OPEC Oil Production "Freeze" Talk Will Have Similar Ending ... No Agreement - Oil cartoon 12.28.2015

 

"We’ve seen this movie before: in response to low oil prices, a few producers propose a production freeze designed to talk up crude prices but has no real impact on fundamentals.

 

According to recent press reports, Venezuela, Kuwait and Ecuador are again pushing a production freeze in response to the recent dip in oil prices. Since OPEC meets informally at the upcoming International Energy Forum (IEF) in Algeria on September 26-28, some market participants believe the Production Freeze 2 has real legs pushing prices higher on Monday.

 

However, we believe the sequel to the production freeze will end the same with no agreement in September. We remain highly skeptical that any meaningful agreement will be reached or that it changes the outlook for oil markets. 

 

  • First, the production freeze is not a serious proposal but designed only as a public relations tool to effect sentiment and try to establish an artificial price floor. 
  • Second, Saudi Arabia and Iran will not agree to a production freeze because the September timing is too soon."

 

Additional oil-related Insights written by McMonigle:

 

 

**For more information about our institutional research contact sales@hedgeye.com.


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

PREMIUM INSIGHT

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | One-Two Punch

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | One-Two Punch - dollar pic

This is a complimentary research note originally published August 4, 2016 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com. "In the past two weeks, domestic equity mutual funds have experienced their two largest withdrawals so far in 2016." 


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 8 9

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 8 9 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 8 9

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 8 9 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 8 9

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 8 9


CHART OF THE DAY: Being The Bears On Emerging Markets

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Alas, we should’ve seen broad-based EM reflation coming from a mile away. As rewarding as being the axe on the bear side of EM has been since we authored the call in early 2013 (see: Chart of the Day below) is as shameful as it has felt overstaying our welcome in the YTD."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Being The Bears On Emerging Markets - 8 9 16 Chart of the Day


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next