A Troubling Update On Australia’s Housing Bubble

Takeaway: The housing bubble in Australia is bad news for the country's big banks.

Editor’s Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner discussing ME Bank’s semi-annual report called the Household Financial Comfort Report which details the results of a survey that gathers responses from a significant sample size of 1,500 households.

 

This is an update to a previous piece, “Banks on the Barbie: Four Short Ideas In Australia’s Housing Bubble.” To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

A Troubling Update On Australia’s Housing Bubble - Australia housing cartoon

THE PORTION OF AUSTRALIANS UNABLE TO MANAGE THEIR DEBT JUST DOUBLED

The red line in the chart below represents the portion of the 65% of indedbted households that expect they will be unable to make their minimum payments. After being virtually flat for the entirety of the survey’s life, that line has risen twofold in the last six months from 5% as of December 2015 to 10% as of June 2016. To be clear, that means that 10% of the 65% of Australian households with debt—6.5% of all households—expect to default in the next 6-12 months.

 

A Troubling Update On Australia’s Housing Bubble - australia manage debt

 

**To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.