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CHART OF THE DAY: Pre-Jobs Report Insights

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Global demand and domestic output growth are down. And employment growth in excess of output growth – which remains the case currently- is paid for via lower corporate profitability. 

 

Absent improved productivity, “strong” employment trends = further margin compression = continued profitability pressure against a backdrop of forward earnings growth estimates in the mid-teens. We continue to think those expectations need to be marked lower."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Pre-Jobs Report Insights - Labor vs. Output CoD2


Central Planning 101: BoE Crushes The People's Purchasing Power

Takeaway: BoE cut rates by to 0.25%, increased its QE target to £60 billion, which included £10 billion corporate bond purchases. ↓ GBP, ↓ 10yr Gilt

Carney did his best to devalue the purchasing power of The People yesterday (a little “market security” in exchange for what was a great driver for the UK consumer economy in 2015, #StrongPound). He got the GBP/USD down to $1.31 while blasting the 10yr Gilt Yield down to 0.63% where it’s holding this morning, down -14bps month-over-month.

 

Central Planning 101: BoE Crushes The People's Purchasing Power - pound 8 5

UK 10-year Gilt Yield

Central Planning 101: BoE Crushes The People's Purchasing Power - uk gilt 8 5

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Choppy Waters

[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Choppy Waters - fed 6 9 14

 

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. Since Yellen & Co. have totally got this (for sure), we bring you another audience favorite.

 

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A Job Cut Spike In The Oil Patch

Takeaway: While claims were fairly unexciting this past week, the Challenger Job Cuts Report showed a fresh round of layoffs in energy.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Financials analyst Josh Steiner and Jonathan Casteleyn earlier today. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com

A Job Cut Spike In The Oil Patch - jobs cartoon 06.03.2016

The Challenger Job Cut Report showed a 17,700 spike in cuts from the energy industry today. That's up from 2,000 in the prior reading. As the Challenger report points out, this was somewhat of a surprise, given recent projections for rising oil prices and labor shortages. 

 

Here's a closer look.

A Job Cut Spike In The Oil Patch - job cut 8 4 16


Caterpillar: 6 Questions & 1 Chart From Our Short CAT Conference Call

Takeaway: Hedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver recently added Caterpillar to their Best Ideas Short List

Editor's Note: Our Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver hosted an in-depth presentation on his Caterpillar short call today. He recently added CAT back to his Best Ideas list. Below are key discussion points he covered during the call. 

Caterpillar: 6 Questions & 1 Chart From Our Short CAT Conference Call - z cat cartoon

KEY DISCUSSION POINTS:

  • Orders vs. Sales: Do order rates support current 2H16 & 2017 consensus estimates?
  • Mutually Exclusive Goals:  Can CAT maintain its dividend and its credit rating?
  • Materials Cost:  What do higher steel prices mean for future manufacturing decrementals?
  • CAT Financial: Is the decline in allowances appropriate and sustainable?
  • Aftermarket Cycle Stability: Do improvements in mining equipment aftermarket move the needle for CAT?
  • Valuation:  Are CAT shares pricing in a cyclical rebound in Mining and Oil & Gas capital spending? 

 

Caterpillar: 6 Questions & 1 Chart From Our Short CAT Conference Call - caterpillar


PREMIUM INSIGHT

New Potential Risks For Energy Infrastructure Projects From Obama Administration

New Potential Risks For Energy Infrastructure Projects From Obama Administration - z pipe

Below is an excerpt from an institutional research note written by Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle on the Obama Administration’s Council of Environmental Quality (CEQ) rule.


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