“It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.”
- George Washington
WIDENING REPUBLICAN RIFT: Fresh divisions are emerging within the Republican Party over Donald Trump and his outlandish acts – we’re losing count – though Trump insists the party is unified. The recent uproars have led many Republicans to distance themselves from Trump and voice their support for the Khan family and their party’s core values. Some are even finding a new home for this election cycle in Hillary Clinton’s camp. She’s actively courting moderate Republicans and is picking up more high-profile defectors like long-time Republican donor and HP CEO Meg Whitman. Efforts to salvage and reset Trump’s campaign may also be underway by party leaders and elders, but don’t expect major changes to take root after a disastrous 72 hours. And if you thought that was the end of it, running mate Mike Pence is splitting with Trump and endorsing Speaker Paul Ryan.
HIBERNATING HILLARY: In case you haven’t noticed, Clinton has been absent from the headlines these last few days, and it’s simple to understand why: Trump continues to implode on his own every day and he’s dragging Republicans with him. By laying low, she has left room for Trump to build on his recent controversies regarding the Khan family, his non-endorsements of Ryan and Senator John McCain, party turmoil, and a campaign in disarray. She’s marching forward while Republicans are watching their efforts crumble.
LIBERTARIAN LAYOUT: Libertarian leaders Gary Johnson and Bill Weld took center stage to present their visions to the nation and sell themselves as the other option for president. Both Johnson and Weld spoke on Libertarian values, highlighting their fiscally conservative, socially liberal ideals. Both criticized Trump as nothing short of dangerous, and frequently ticked off his proposals as inhumane and irresponsible, while labeling Clinton as a predictable politician. It’s unlikely the two will be victorious on November 8 or even make it to the debate stage, but look for the Libertarian ticket to make a dent in either party’s voter base - especially if anti-Trump Republicans succeed in their efforts of forming an independent group to boost the pair’s chances.
HUELSKAMP HEAVE-HO: KS Congressman and Tea Party Caucus leader Tim Huelskamp lost his primary this week to a political novice, delivering a major blow to the Tea Party. Huelskamp, who was elected to Congress in 2010, quickly earned a reputation for frustrating Republican leaders by poking the bear repeatedly until he was removed from a crucial position on the Agriculture Committee by former Speaker John Boehner – a critical role for someone from a farm state. Consequently, Boehner later resigned amid struggles while reining in the party’s chief agitators - with Huelskamp at the top of the heap. The continued infighting between establishment Republicans and the party’s far right-wing is certain to spill over when they return to the business of governing.
NOT ALL POLLS ARE CREATED EQUAL: Clinton and her campaign shot out of the convention climbing in national polls, while leaving Trump in a rut – but don’t be fooled by the media blitz on statistics. National polls can be a good barometer of the current momentum of the race and the national mood, but they don’t always reflect the reality on the ground. Given the importance of the Electoral College, state and regional polling provides a much more accurate forecast of what’s in play; FL, NC, VA, PA, OH, and AZ are the grand prizes, and will require a strong grassroots effort and community voter outreach from both campaigns if they want to make inroads with the coveted swing-state voters.
KILL BILL(S): As we’ve seen throughout appropriations season thus far, last-minute policy riders almost always kill spending bills. Gun control issues could ultimately be that bullet when we return from recess, bumping funding for important government programs to the bottom of the ladder.
NOTE: We're traveling for the next week and will resume Capital Brief on Wednesday with an abbreviated schedule through Labor Day given the Congressional recess.
NEW RULE REQUIRES FEDERAL AGENCIES TO CONSIDER GHG AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN DECISIONS: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle shared his insight on new potential risks and delays for Federal approvals of energy infrastructure projects. You can read his piece here.
FY2017 HOSPICE PAYMENT UPDATE FINALIZED - STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING: Our Healthcare Policy Emily Evans shared her insight on hints about what could change in the future, and although there are no concrete proposals yet, investors should be wary. You can read her piece here.
