As the ISIS caliphate in Iraq and Syria shrinks, and as their newest caliphate-in-the making in Libya suffers the same fate, jihadist adherents have wreaked multi-continent havoc over the last six weeks -from Orlando to Nice, from Istanbul to Dakha. Much of this had been predicted. With both Mosul and Raqqa, the so-called capital of the ISIS caliphate, under mounting military pressure, CIA Director John Brennan had warned that ISIS will "intensify its global terror campaign to maintain its dominance of the global terrorism agenda." His warning was sadly prescient.

 

Beyond its intense barbarity passing as religion, ISIS also demonstrates a key characteristic of war-fighting organizations: strategic agility. This at least partly explains John Brennan's recent warning. And if there was any doubt about the seriousness of ISIS leaders' campaign plan in the months ahead, consider the May exhortation of Muhammed al-Adnani, the ISIS spokesman, to ISIS followers: "The smallest action you do IN THEIR HEARTLAND (emphasis added) is better and more enduring to us than what you would do if you were with us."

Short of a "reformation" by Islamic religious leaders and in the broader Islamic "ummah" (community), jihadist ideology will continue unabated; and thanks to social media, it will continue to extend its attractiveness.

With this disturbing picture, what are the key developments to monitor over the coming year that affect business risk?

  • First, pay attention to the vulnerabilities of countries on the periphery of the jihadist "beaten zone:" western Europe and Turkey. Unfortunately, there are mixed messages on the counter-ISIS campaigns in each of these two geographies: Europe, post-Paris, post-Brussels and now post-Nice, is tightening its security architecture; Turkey however is effectively dismantling its military and police leadership, post-coup, as President Erdogan conducts a sweeping round-up of political opponents under the guise of restoring domestic order. Business risk in Turkey is now at historic highs - from Erdogan's clamp-downs as well as from ISIS.  
  • Second, within the zone of conflict itself, watch the fate of the two countries in the "center of mass" of ISIS terror -- Iraq and Syria. The key will be how these two countries handle the Sunnis! Should both Mosul and Raqqa fall over the next 12 months to Iraq's military and to Syrian rebels, the military victory will be hollow unless a governance structure is quickly established that accommodates moderate Sunnis - the Petraeus counter-insurgency model that marked success during the "surge" in Iraq in 2007.
  • Finally, don't forget two additional countries struggling against the jihadist threat but, so far, perilously holding their own: Jordan and Tunisia. In many respects, they can be a model for political legitimacy and stability, in a region with precious little of either. Jordan's monarchy, despite harboring close to one million refugees from Syria, has been intelligently guided by King Abdullah and assisted by timely infusions of US assistance; and Tunisia, at least to date, has been the sole survivor of the "Arab spring" uprisings, with its two principal parties steering a delicate path between repression and anarchy. The collapse of either country would represent a major strategic setback for the U.S., and for any hope of undermining the jihadist narrative.

A former Army Chief of Staff who commanded U.S. troops in Iraq stated last month, on the margins of the U.S. political conventions, that the "tragedy unfolding in the Arab world is an ideological struggle," as much within Islam as between Islam and the west; he concluded that the last ideological struggle, the Cold War, lasted 45 years; by that measure, we may be only a third of the way through this one.

  • The phrase "long war," adopted shortly after 9/11, has been derided of late; it shouldn't be. As a Saudi commentator explained it, "We have a chronic problem of governance that is more than 1400 years old: who is the rightful successor to the Prophet? That question is still hanging over our heads." Americans, used to short-term solutions, need to lengthen their planning horizons.