prev

Capital Brief: Trump Turmoil... Is Time Running Out For The GOP?

Takeaway: Trump Trumoil; Continuing The Kahn Controversy; Time Running Out For Trump;

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Trump Turmoil... Is Time Running Out For The GOP? - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“Words without actions are the assassins of idealism.”

-Herbert Hoover

TRUMP TURMOIL

Donald Trump is losing support within Republican party - and his campaign - at a time when unity and consolidation should be a foregone conclusion. His refusal to back Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain is the latest salvo with no end in sight. Republicans are refusing to campaign with Trump and are denouncing him or even withdrawing their endorsements – with NY Congressman Richard Hanna being the first to announce that he’s throwing his weight behind Hillary Clinton.

 

To make matters worse, turmoil is the norm at Trump Towers these days with fresh news that senior campaign officials are either being fired or are beyond frustration with their candidate. Not a good time to reshuffle the decks with 96 days to go.

CONTINUING THE KAHN CONTROVERSY

We’re now entering day five of the Khan saga after Trump (and his son) let fly a series of comments about the Gold Star family of a fallen U.S. soldier whose father spoke out against him at the DNC. The rift is starting to take a toll on the Republican party just as they were feeling better about their chances to keep the Senate this fall. The sooner Trump moves off this issue (neither the Khan family nor the media should sit by the phone waiting for an apology), the sooner he and the party can address the elephant in the room - Republican unity.

TIME RUNNING OUT FOR TRUMP

Letting Trump be Trump worked for the Trump campaign in the Republican primaries and it even helped him make it through the convention with a decent bounce. Through each and every controversy his supporters have stood by him with abandon - but in reality, he will not win over Independents and undecideds growing his base and appealing to those outside the party without making some character changes. If he wants to win the general election, picking up these two voter groups has to be the top - if not only - priority. There’s no time left for Trump’s tirades and twitter tantrums.


5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough - World Market No 12.16.14 

 

In the charts below, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough analyzes the important happenings in macro markets this morning. 

 

1. Japan

 

2. Euro

 

3. Commodities

 

4. Oil

 

5. Gold 

 


Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink

Takeaway: So far in 2Q16, 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%.

Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink - earnings 8 3

 

For Q2 Earnings Season to-date:

 

  1. 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%
  2. 6 of 10 S&P 500 sectors have reported year-over-year EPS declines.
  3. 27 of the 367 companies that have reported are “Energy” companies – and no you can’t “ex-that-out”
  4. 79 of the 367 companies are called Financials, and their aggregate y/y EPS decline is -5.4% 

 

Bottom Line: The whole "ex-Energy earnings are great" narrative is as illusory as it is dishonest.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

PREMIUM INSIGHT

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On - aca signing

This is an institutional research note written by Health Policy Sector Head Emily Evans on President Obama's Affordable Care Act. "As a jobs program, the ACA was a soaring success. As a health care reform effort, there was still much work to be done and the tools were there to finish the job," Evans writes. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - style factor 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 8 3


What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out)

Takeaway: Oil & Energy assets are a big part of the asset inflation the Fed needed off the lows. My risk ranges signal lower-highs and lower-lows.

Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?

 

  

What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out) - Oil cartoon 12.08.2015

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next