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5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough - World Market No 12.16.14 

 

In the charts below, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough analyzes the important happenings in macro markets this morning. 

 

1. Japan

 

2. Euro

 

3. Commodities

 

4. Oil

 

5. Gold 

 


Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink

Takeaway: So far in 2Q16, 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%.

Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink - earnings 8 3

 

For Q2 Earnings Season to-date:

 

  1. 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%
  2. 6 of 10 S&P 500 sectors have reported year-over-year EPS declines.
  3. 27 of the 367 companies that have reported are “Energy” companies – and no you can’t “ex-that-out”
  4. 79 of the 367 companies are called Financials, and their aggregate y/y EPS decline is -5.4% 

 

Bottom Line: The whole "ex-Energy earnings are great" narrative is as illusory as it is dishonest.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On - aca signing

This is an institutional research note written by Health Policy Sector Head Emily Evans on President Obama's Affordable Care Act. "As a jobs program, the ACA was a soaring success. As a health care reform effort, there was still much work to be done and the tools were there to finish the job," Evans writes. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


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Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - style factor 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 8 3


What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out)

Takeaway: Oil & Energy assets are a big part of the asset inflation the Fed needed off the lows. My risk ranges signal lower-highs and lower-lows.

Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?

 

  

What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out) - Oil cartoon 12.08.2015

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 13 in our current Q3 Macro Themes deck), US domestic corporate profits (and margins) put in the mother of all tops in the 2nd half of 2014. And at $60 Oil (never mind $39), we’re not going back there.

 

Alas, after any long-term #bubble chart like this peaks and rolls, everyone in the Old Wall research department wants to call it “bottoming” (having never called it topping of course). That’s typically the last sucker’s rally."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally - 08.03.16 EL Chart


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