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Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

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Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 8 2


Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs

Takeaway: Imagine there’s actually a credit consequence to this nonsense.

So ... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet just approved a ¥28.1 TRILLION fiscal bazooka. For the record, that's roughly $274,000,000,000 in U.S. Dollars. And then ... and then ... both Yens and JGBs went the wrong way on the news!

 

Wow. Imagine there’s actually a credit consequence to this nonsense.

 

JGB 10yr yield now +18 basis points in a month (to -0.08%); Nikkei resumes #crash mode, down -1.5% overnight (-22% from the 2015 Global Equity Bubble High)

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - nikkei 8 2

 

Post-fiscal stimulus approval, Yen down -0.6%...

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - usdjpy 8 2

 

In the past month, JGB 10yr up +18.7 basis points.

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - jgb 8 2


I guess they can’t just go Ex-China-Japan-Oil-Europe-Netflix just yet…

Client Talking Points

Japan

The 28.1 TRILLION in fiscal bazooka approved, and both Yens and JGBs went the wrong way on that (imagine there’s a credit consequence to this nonsense…); JGB 10yr yield now +18bps in a month (to -0.08%); Nikkei resumes #crash mode, -1.5% overnight (-22% from the 2015 Global Equity Bubble High).

Oil

Chart chasing pros in disarray as WTI remains below $40 this morning (that’s a -23% crash since 1st week of June); does it matter? Or shall we spin this back to being “bullish for the consumer” when 85% of Financial Assets are held by the Top 10% - Oil and Energy related assets are a big part of the asset inflation the Fed needed off the March lows.

XLE

Energy Stocks down hard obviously, but do you buy them here? Consensus is already long them is the problem… risk signal levels matter to me and I have XLE TREND = 67.17, XOP TREND = 34.95, OIH TREND = 29.45 (all broken, for now); with Oil Volatility OVX breaking out to 44-45, I’m in no rush to buy these, yet…

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/1/16 62% 3% 5% 6% 12% 12%
8/2/16 60% 3% 5% 6% 13% 13%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/1/16 62% 9% 15% 18% 36% 36%
8/2/16 60% 9% 15% 18% 39% 39%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

To summarize our active ideas, long Gold (GLD) and long U.S. Dollar position (via PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), netted out Friday, with gold catching a bid against a USD that got crushed on the report. (Part of the reason we added UUP to Investing Ideas was the expectation of a GDP print that may have sent a hawkish message to the market.) Think of Gold and the USD as a position against a basket of other currencies.

TLT

The good news for #GrowthSlowing bulls is that the Treasury rate curve will likely get pushed lower over the coming days as investors take stock of this week’s ugly data. That's good for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) and Long Bonds (TLT).

UUP

See update on GLD.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

CHART OF THE DAY | Oil: Where To From Here? app.hedgeye.com/insights/52806… via @KeithMcCullough #Oil $USD #FX $OVX

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships”

-Michael Jordan  

STAT OF THE DAY

Carlos Beltran, who was traded to the Texas Rangers yesterday, has hit 414 career homeruns with a .281 batting average over his 19 year career.


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August 2, 2016

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  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.55 1.45 1.51
SPX
S&P 500
2,161 2,177 2,170
RUT
Russell 2000
1,190 1,225 1,219
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,050 5,195 5,184
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,290 16,828 16,635
DAX
German DAX Composite
9,952 10,390 10,330
VIX
Volatility Index
11.59 15.34 12.44
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
95.25 97.50 95.75
EURUSD
Euro
1.09 1.12 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
101.01 104.85 102.42
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
39.06 42.73 40.06
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.56 2.91 2.77
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,333 1,366 1,359
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.16 2.28 2.20
AAPL
Apple Inc.
99.35 107.56 106.05
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
731 772 767
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
83.91 95.55 94.37
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
62.17 64.44 63.80
FB
Facebook Inc.
119.34 126.03 124.31
F
Ford Motor Company
12.10 13.15 12.48


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


The Macro Show with Ben Ryan Replay | August 2, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides. 

 

 An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.


CHART OF THE DAY | Oil: Where To From Here?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Where to from here?

 

  1. USD - continues to signal bullish TREND inasmuch the Euro and Pound are signaling bearish TREND vs. USD
  2. SUPPLY – tell me a story that isn’t, in rate of change terms, showing a rising probability of rising supply in Q3/Q4
  3. DEMAND – did it ever matter? If it does, US Consumption is currently lapping its peak comp (on a 2yr basis) in Q3

 

I know. I’m not an Oil man. But those are the Top 3 reasons why I’m not long Oil right now. Most “asset classes” that sustain volatility levels > 30 aren’t my cup of tea (I drink coffee). Oil Volatility (OVX) is breaking out > 45 this morning. That’s scary."

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Oil: Where To From Here? - 08.02.16 el chart


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