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Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

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Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 8 2

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 8 2


Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs

Takeaway: Imagine there’s actually a credit consequence to this nonsense.

So ... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet just approved a ¥28.1 TRILLION fiscal bazooka. For the record, that's roughly $274,000,000,000 in U.S. Dollars. And then ... and then ... both Yens and JGBs went the wrong way on the news!

 

Wow. Imagine there’s actually a credit consequence to this nonsense.

 

JGB 10yr yield now +18 basis points in a month (to -0.08%); Nikkei resumes #crash mode, down -1.5% overnight (-22% from the 2015 Global Equity Bubble High)

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - nikkei 8 2

 

Post-fiscal stimulus approval, Yen down -0.6%...

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - usdjpy 8 2

 

In the past month, JGB 10yr up +18.7 basis points.

 

Banzai? Japan Unveils ¥28.1 Trillion Viagra Package ... Market Shrugs - jgb 8 2


CHART OF THE DAY | Oil: Where To From Here?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Where to from here?

 

  1. USD - continues to signal bullish TREND inasmuch the Euro and Pound are signaling bearish TREND vs. USD
  2. SUPPLY – tell me a story that isn’t, in rate of change terms, showing a rising probability of rising supply in Q3/Q4
  3. DEMAND – did it ever matter? If it does, US Consumption is currently lapping its peak comp (on a 2yr basis) in Q3

 

I know. I’m not an Oil man. But those are the Top 3 reasons why I’m not long Oil right now. Most “asset classes” that sustain volatility levels > 30 aren’t my cup of tea (I drink coffee). Oil Volatility (OVX) is breaking out > 45 this morning. That’s scary."

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Oil: Where To From Here? - 08.02.16 el chart


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[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Currency Wars

[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Currency Wars - currency wars

 

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. The top 50 central banks have cut interest rates 672 times since September 2008, triggering a global race to the bottom in currency devaluation terms. In light of all the monetary policy shenanigans, we bring you another audience favorite.

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


The Most Significant U.S. Political Development In Over 30 Years

Takeaway: The rise of Trump and Sanders is the most significant development in American politics going back to the early 1980s.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Demography Sector head Neil Howe. This is the first of several pieces he is writing about the election. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

The Most Significant U.S. Political Development In Over 30 Years - trump bernie

 

Let me say at the outset that I get a lot of questions from readers about how Clinton v Trump fits into the predictive schema laid out in a couple of books I co-authored in the 1990s (Generations in 1991 and The Fourth Turning in 1997). I will respond to these questions in my upcoming notes.

 

Let me just say here, as a preview, that I regard the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to be the most significant development in American politics going back to the early 1980s—not because of who Trump or Sanders are personally, but because of what their popularity says about a decisive mood shift in the electorate. (And not just here in America, but around much of the world.) In our earlier books, we foresaw this shift as driven by generational aging and occurring on a “seasonal” timetable that has demonstrated remarkable regularity through history.

 

In brief, since the middle of 2000-2010 decade, America has been moving into a “fourth turning era,” a winter season of history in which there arises a surging popular demand for community, public authority, national priorities, cultural tradition, and bottom-line results. There is an equivalent ebbing of popular interest in goals that had earlier been esteemed—such as individualism, personal rights, globalization, cultural transgression, and fair process.

 

Already, the Trump and Sanders movements have radically realigned the American political firmament. Trump, in one blow, has obliterated the party of culture-war social values, imperial globalism, and unregulated free agency. The new GOP stands for pragmatic social solutions, America-first isolationism, and solidarity with the working class.

 

Sanders, meanwhile, has pulled the Democratic Party far to the economic left and endowed its platform with vast new public agendas (including single-payer health, a universal right to college, and soak-the-rich tax rates) that few Democratic leaders previously contemplated, even as recently as 2012. And what Sanders started in the Democratic makeover, the sheer threat of Donald Trump has completed. Can anyone in living memory recall a Democratic convention with so many American flags and “USA” chants, so much talk about “American greatness,” so many appeals to “faith,” “family values” (thanks, Michelle), and law and order. At the same time the party is moving leftward economically, it is moving rightward socially.


ISM Employment: So Bullish You Have To Buy Stocks!

Takeaway: We're kidding.

ISM Employment: So Bullish You Have To Buy Stocks! - ism mfg 8 1

 

Today's ISM Employment number is back to contraction. That 49.4 reading? It marks the 7th month in the last 8 in which the Employment index has been sub-50. Meanwhile, the headline ISM Manufacturing reading of 52.6 also fell from the prior month. That's not going to end The Bull that remains The Long Bond. 

 

In other words, the #GrowthSlowing trend remains firmly intact.

 

Still bullish?


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