CLIENT TALKING POINTS
USD
It wasn’t fun missing the Oil move (off 3yr lows) in Q2, but we're sure happy we’re not long it now (long Gold instead); USD continues to signal bullish TREND after a hawkish Fed yesterday (they’ve pivoted from dovish to hawkish 5x in 6 months, which is embarrassing) and ahead of a hot GDP report tomorrow (we’re at +4.8% q/q SAAR – that’s +2.3% y/y).
Europe
When Janet proclaimed global risks have abated yesterday, we guess that’s Ex-Spain and Ex-Italy – both stock markets down another -1.5-1.7% this morning and both remain in crash mode, -28% and -31% from their 2015 Global Equity #Bubble highs, respectively; we maintain our bearish Macro Theme of #EuropeImploding.
UST 10YR
Worldwide long-term yields lower in the last 48 hours and with the UST 10yr at 1.50%, we'd be a seller of long-term bonds into this GDP report (hoping to buy the 10yr back again around 1.65-1.70%); plenty of people will get sucked into this GDP print if it’s as big as we think it’s going to look (for Q3 we’re straight back down to 0.8%).
TOP LONG IDEAS
GLD
Gold (GLD) = Protection from global currency devaluation and inflation/down USD – You can travel anywhere on earth and get a quote in local currency.
TLT
Long Bonds (TLT) = #GrowthSlowing, yield curve compression.
TIP
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) = Combination of the above exposures.
Asset Allocation
CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7/27/16 | 64% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 8% |
7/28/16 | 66% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7/27/16 | 64% | 6% | 12% | 36% | 30% | 24% |
7/28/16 | 66% | 6% | 18% | 24% | 24% | 30% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
The Fed Is More Short Term Now Than a CT Prop Trader Pounding 6 Starbucks Per Day app.hedgeye.com/insights/52666… @federalreserve
@KeithMcCullough
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Life is short. Smile while you still have teeth.”
-Mallory Hopkin
STAT OF THE DAY
in 2004, Barry Bonds was walked 232 times, 120 were intentional.