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PREMIUM INSIGHT

The Fed Is More Short Term Now Than a CT Prop Trader Pounding 6 Starbucks Per Day

The Fed Is More Short Term Now Than a CT Prop Trader Pounding 6 Starbucks Per Day - z fed yell

"This is a professional and national embarrassment," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.


[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Volcker To Yellen

[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Volcker To Yellen - Fed Chairmen cartoon 02.03.2016

 

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. In light of the Fed's decision to hold rates steady today, we bring you another audience favorite


Fed Hawkish....

Takeaway: Dovish to Hawkish, Dovish to Hawkish

I couldn’t make this up if I tried, but in the last 6 months, the Federal Reserve has pivoted from Hawkish (DEC hike) to Dovish (on market down), to Hawkish (April), back to Dovish (May Jobs Report bomb), and now Hawkish again!

 

And I quote (because this is going to make them look really bad come the Q3 GDP report), “near term risks to the outlook have diminished”… ex-Durable Goods, ex-Capex, ex-Labor, ex-Profits… yes, until the next jobs report?

 

The Fed is shorter term now than a CT prop trader pounding 6 SBUX per day. If we’re right, Friday’s Q2 GDP report is going to be up big sequentially (we’re at +4.8% q/q SAAR), then down hard, sequentially, in Q3 (right before the election).

 

God Speed to them as they prepare to pivot back to Dovish (again). This is a professional and national embarrassment.

 

 

Fed Hawkish.... - Durable Goods

 

 


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Why We’re Positive On Las Vegas Sands And Its Fat Dividend

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan explains why he likes Las Vegas Sands (LVS).


Under 60 Seconds: 3 Takeaways From Twitter's Earnings Report

Takeaway: Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban shares three key conclusions from Twitter's worse-than-expected earnings report.


An Update On An (Ugly) Earnings Scorecard

Takeaway: Aggregate S&P 500 sales and earnings growth for the second quarter are +0.6% and -4.2% respectively.

An Update On An (Ugly) Earnings Scorecard - earnings 7 27

 

Remember the Old Wall consensus narrative that "earnings have bottomed"?

The key callouts:

  • A total of 182 of 500 companies have reported aggregate S&P 500 year-over-year sales and earnings growth for the second quarter of +0.6% and -4.2% respectively;
  • 4 of 10 S&P sectors reported negative year-over-year earnings so far;
  • Energy sales and earnings growth, -22.6% and -78.7% respectively;
  • Information Technology sales and earnings growth, -4.3% and -12.1% respectively;
  • Financials sales and earnings growth, -0.5% and -4.5% respectively;

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%
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