I couldn’t make this up if I tried, but in the last 6 months, the Federal Reserve has pivoted from Hawkish (DEC hike) to Dovish (on market down), to Hawkish (April), back to Dovish (May Jobs Report bomb), and now Hawkish again!
And I quote (because this is going to make them look really bad come the Q3 GDP report), “near term risks to the outlook have diminished”… ex-Durable Goods, ex-Capex, ex-Labor, ex-Profits… yes, until the next jobs report?
The Fed is shorter term now than a CT prop trader pounding 6 SBUX per day. If we’re right, Friday’s Q2 GDP report is going to be up big sequentially (we’re at +4.8% q/q SAAR), then down hard, sequentially, in Q3 (right before the election).
God Speed to them as they prepare to pivot back to Dovish (again). This is a professional and national embarrassment.