Ouch! Durable Goods: Neither Durable Nor Good

Takeaway: Headline Durable Goods fell -4.6% sequentially in June and declined to -6.4% YoY.

Ouch! Durable Goods: Neither Durable Nor Good - The Cycle cartoon 05.12.2016

 

While aggregate household spending remains relatively healthy, the trend in domestic durable goods orders continues to prove neither durable nor good, according to Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake.  Headline Durable Goods fell -4.6% sequentially in June and declined to -6.4% YoY. 

 

The -60% decline in private sector aircraft orders weighed on the headline, Durables ex-Defense and Aircraft – which aligns most closely with what actual households buy – remained negative year-over-year (-1.8%) for a 4th consecutive month. 

 

Meanwhile, Core Capital Goods Orders fell -3.7% YoY, extending its epic run of negative capital spending growth to 17 of the last 18 months = the most dismal non-recession/peri-recession streak basically ever.

 

Here's the detailed Durable goods breakdown (as you can see, it's a sea of red):

 

Click image to enlarge

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