prev

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 7 26


CHART OF THE DAY: Long 2010 Brunello Vs. Short $QQQ

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... For those of us who have been investing in real estate, private companies, gold, platinum, wine, an NHL team, etc., that’s an easy question to answer. With Italian wines in particular, #EuropeImploding has provided for some fantastic buying opportunities this year.

 

If you want a primer on investing in IGW (Investment Grade Wines), the aforementioned quote comes from a great book that my wife Laura got me, titled Investing In Liquid Assets. As David Sokolin likes to say, “with wine, there’s no such thing as a losing investment”… if you’re underwater, you eventually win by drinking it! Long 2010 Brunello vs. Short QQQ."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Long 2010 Brunello Vs. Short $QQQ - 07.26.16 chart


[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Iceberg(s)

 [From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Iceberg(s) - Greek iceberg cartoon 06.30.2015 large

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. On that note, and given the resurgence of Europe’s ongoing, multifaceted issues, we bring you this audience favorite. Originally published in June 2015, it's just as fitting today as investors fret over Italian bank solvency and a host of other issues in Europe.


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

The Market Value Of Negative Yielding Corporate Debt Globally Is Up +1,322% In 2016

Takeaway: As central banks push interest rates further into negative territory, the market value of negative yielding debt hits $387 billion.

The Market Value Of Negative Yielding Corporate Debt Globally Is Up +1,322% In 2016 - Yield cartoon 06.14.2016

 

That's no misprint. The value of negative yielding investment grade corporate debt is up +1,322% this year, hitting $387 billion. That's according to data in the Bloomberg Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond index, which tracks 9,976 investment grade bonds.

 

The index now includes 621 negative yielding bonds, versus just 59 at the start of the year, issued by companies such as General Electric, Siemens, Total, Unilever, Daimler, and Roche. 

 

Meanwhile, on the sovereign bond front, there is $9.1 trillion in negative yielding bonds globally, according to the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond index. That's up from $2.8 trillion at the start of the year. (Note: The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond index is currently 0.49%, versus 1.14% in November.)

 

The Market Value Of Negative Yielding Corporate Debt Globally Is Up +1,322% In 2016 - bgdsb

 

Don't expect this trend to reverse any time soon. With central banks globally desperately trying to reverse the general economic malaise expect yet more bonds to test negative territory.


Lazard: Cheap On The Wrong Numbers

In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn reiterates his short call on Lazard ahead of its earnings report on Thursday.


FLASHBACK | WAB: Adding Short Wabtec To Best Ideas List

Takeaway: Wabtec (WAB) has fallen over 30% since Jay Van Sciver made it a Best Idea Short.

Editor's Note: Our Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver added Wabtec (WAB) as a Best Idea Short on February 20, 2015. Shares are down over 30% since he laid out his bear case. Here's an excerpt from his original note. For information on how you can subscribe to our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

FLASHBACK | WAB: Adding Short Wabtec To Best Ideas List - z 3

 

Summary

While we might be a bit early, we believe that a short WAB position offers excellent exposure to the downcycle in resources-related capital spending.  Stating the obvious, railroads provide transport for bulk commodities.  The rapid growth in output for iron ore, shale oil, and many other commodities drove a boom in capital investment in rail transport infrastructure.  The gradual stagnation in bulk commodity output growth amid lower prices should drive global rail investment back toward long-run norms.  This one may not be quick, but the return opportunity appears significant, as we currently see a normalized valuation range for WAB between $40 and $60 per share.

 

We believe the valuation of WAB shares reflect a premium ‘growth industrial’ story, which we see as analogous to the mining equipment companies (JOY, CAT) in early 2012.  Back then, similar rationalizations based on population growth and aftermarket opportunities were employed to justify overvalued equity.  We view both rail capital equipment and mining capital equipment as GDP-ish growth deep cyclicals, not industries experiencing secular growth. 

 

FLASHBACK | WAB: Adding Short Wabtec To Best Ideas List - z wab 1

 

Risks

There are several risks to our view including a huge commodity price rebound, S&P index addition, and the potential for WAB to be acquired.  We would look to be long a cheaper industry player, or hedge appropriately, as discussed in last week's note.

 

For more information on how you can subscribe to our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next