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What Jobless Claims Say About Recession (And Risk Of Significant Stock Market Selloff)

Takeaway: We're knocking on recession's door according to historical jobless claims data.

In the two charts below, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner highlights how jobless claims data sub-330,000 is a harbinger of recession and hence significant stock market selloffs.

 

The first chart shows the last three cycles and the length of time jobless claims dropped below 330k before recession hit. The numbers are as follows: 24, 45, and 31 months (average: 33 months). With the current cycle in its 29th month below that level, we are

 

  • 5 months past the minimum
  • 4 months shy of the 33-month average
  • 16 months from the max

Chart #1

What Jobless Claims Say About Recession (And Risk Of Significant Stock Market Selloff) - zgogo

 

 

In the last cycle, the bottoming in jobless claims preceded a massive equity selloff.

CHART #2

What Jobless Claims Say About Recession (And Risk Of Significant Stock Market Selloff) - jobless stocks

 

*To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


TWTR | Thoughts into the Print (2Q16)

Takeaway: Sorry for the delay, struggled with the setup. We're bearish into 4Q and beyond, but see 2Q upside, and the 3Q guide could go either way.

KEY POINTS

  1. THESIS REFRESH: We covered our TWTR short ahead of the 1Q16 print due to expected 1Q/2Q upside since we underestimated the auto-play mix headwind.  For now, we're keeping TWTR on our Short Bench, but our thesis hasn't changed; we still can’t see a way to fix the model given the damage TWTR has inflicted on it over the past 2+ years.  We believe problem with the TWTR story had been that the pre-Dorsey regime was scared of the street.  Instead of rebasing expectations early on, TWTR chased estimates with rampant increases in ad load, in turn pushing its users away.  We had previously estimated that TWTR had churned through nearly 40% of its US user base (Aug 2015 survey, n=7.5K); in turn shifting the US user story from organic growth to recapture, which may be tougher to achieve.  That said, monetization is now even more challenged since TWTR is struggling to capture the user/engagement growth necessary to drive its longer-term revenue growth.  We also now suspect that the model is in worse shape than we initially believed after segmenting its Ad business.
  2. CORE PRESSURE: The main drivers of the Ad model right now are Auto-play and its Non-Owned & Operated business (non-O&O).  We estimate that auto-play was roughly 60% of its total 1Q16 ad mix, and that it drove roughly 40% of its total 1Q16 Ad revenue growth.  TWTR’s non-O&O business was its second largest source of Ad revenue growth in 1Q16, but it also exhibited a notable seasonally decline in 1Q16; suggesting it’s no longer an unbridled tailwind.  More importantly, we estimate that Ad revenue growth in its Legacy O&O business (ex Auto-Play) was only in the high-single digit range in 1Q16.  So when we look out to 4Q when TWTR has comps of both a full quarter’s worth of auto-play ads and more mature Non-O&O Ad revenues, the core Legacy O&O business would likely need to reaccelerate off of 1Q levels to get to the 20% Ad revenue growth that consensus is assuming; a challenge given what will likely be flattish user growth.  Granted, we’ll see some benefit from its content deals and a potential lift from the election cycle, but we doubt it will enough to fill the void vs. our 4Q estimate of low- to mid-teens growth.
  3. BUT TOUGH SETUP: The 3Q guide will likely be the key barometer for the print given our diverging expectations for 2Q vs. 4Q.  For context, if TWTR handily beats 2Q estimates with the 3Q guide roughly inline, we suspect the stock moves higher.  On the other hand, if TWTR guides to a material deceleration in 3Q revenue growth into the mid- to high-teens, then we suspect 2Q results will not matter.  We suspect mgmt may sandbag the 3Q guide in order to bring down 4Q expectations; largely because it appears mgmt tried to do so with the 2Q guide, which implies either a y/y decline in its core Legacy O&O business or no sequential growth in either its Non-O&O business or Auto-Play product.  But that's just speculation; we're really not sure how mgmt will approach the 3Q guide.  We're going to sit this one out given the growing wave of negative sell-side sentiment and short interest that remains somewhat elevated.  We think we'll get another shot at the short later this year; if not, we can still look forward to 2017 consensus estimates, which are calling for a reacceleration in Ad revenue growth to the mid-20% range, holding steady throughout 2017.

 

Let us know if you have any questions, or would like to discuss further.

 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA
Managing Director


@HedgeyeInternet

 

TWTR | Thoughts into the Print (2Q16) - TWTR   Non O O 1Q16

TWTR | Thoughts into the Print (2Q16) - TWTR   Incremental Ad Revenue by Source 1Q16


An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD

Editor's Note: Shares of Buffalo Wild Wings were up 5.8% yesterday after it was announced that activist Marcato Capital Management had acquired a 5.1% stake in the company. In the institutional research note below, originally published on 6/13, Hedgeye Restaurants analysts Howard Penney and Shayne Laidlaw wrote that BWLD was "vulnerable to activism" and lay out the problems that have long plagued the company.

 

An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD - bwld2

THE UPSHOT

For the past two years, BWLD has underperformed the S&P 500 by 11% and is down 8% year-to-date.  There is a very strong possibility that FY2016 is going to be a disaster for BWLD when the company posts negative SSS for the first time in 9 years and the second year of disappointing earnings growth.  Although we remain very bearish on the Casual Dining industry overall, BWLD has a unique position within the industry to capitalize on their live TV offering, being a great place for people to gather and watch a game for three to four hours.

 

The recent decision for CFO, Mary Twinem to retire after a disastrous acquisition in 2015 suggests that the company has other issues to deal with.  From an outsiders perspective, this move could be a sign that the business may have been financially mismanaged over the past few years.  We highlight certain capital allocation concerns that could be improved to create significant shareholder value.  More recently, the company’s track record when it comes to projecting their performance has come into question. BWLD has missed SSS for 4 of the last 5 quarters; and missed EPS for the past 6 quarters.

 

We are confident that the BWLD brand is not dead, but the company has had some missteps that have led to underperformance in the business.  There is a lot an activist can do with a business like BWLD and in a slowing sales environment the chances of someone taking action could increase. 

 

An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD - bwld

 

An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD - CHART 2

WHAT HAS GONE WRONG?

Strategic missteps

  • Acquiring franchise stores increases business risk – BWLD went from 39.3% company-owned restaurants in 1Q12 to 50.7% company-owned in 1Q16.  Why in a slowing sales; lower return environment would the parent company want even greater exposure to the volatility in the business?

An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD - CHARt 3

 

  • BWLD has used price aggressively to drive same-store sales for years, but was increasingly aggressive in FY2015. Closing out 2015 with +4% price is likely to have an impact on performance, and will continue to have an impact throughout 2016. 

An Activist Can Do A Lot With Buffalo Wild Wings | $BWLD - CHART 4

 

Distracted management

  • Management has diversified away from the core Buffalo Wild Wings brand, adding in R Taco and PizzaRev.
  • They have a minority interest in Pie Squared Holdings which is the operator and franchisor of PizzaRev a California based fast-casual pizza restaurant. In addition they own and operate PizzaRev restaurants in Minnesota.
  • In addition, BWLD has majority interest in Rusty Taco, Inc. the operator and franchisor of R Taco.
  • They currently franchise two (2) PizzaRev restaurants and four (4) R Taco, with six (6) franchised R Taco’s.
  • With the total number of Buffalo Wild Wings units standing at 1,190, these peripheral concepts merely serve as a pipe dream for growth, and more likely distract management from their core concept, which has plenty of issues in its own right.

 

Poor capital allocation

  • Excessive new unit growth - new unit returns (new unit productivity) are slowing as they increase their unit count into a slowing restaurant environment.
  • The company announced its first ever share repurchase authorization in November 2015. 
  • The company currently does not pay a dividend 
  • BWLD’s net debt / LTM EBITDA currently stands at 0.15x which is far below the industry norm, leaving them plenty of room to increase leverage and return some to shareholders.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO CREATE SHAREHOLDER VALUE

The activist game plan for BWLD is clear cut and can create meaningful long term value for shareholders:

  • Focus On The Core

    • Remove the distraction of non-core brands.
    • Slow new unit growth 
    • Operations must be 100% focused on improving the performance of the Buffalo Wild Wings concept
  • Return Cash To Shareholders

    • BWLD can drive better shareholder returns through share repurchases and paying dividend.
    • With BWLD’s net debt / LTM EBITDA currently at 0.15x, they have ample room on the balance sheet to increase leverage and return cash to shareholders 
  • Refranchise Restaurants/Cut G&A

    • There is significant value from an operational perspective that can be gained by refranchising underperforming stores, especially from trimming corporate G&A
    • Asset sales will lead to incremental share repurchases
    • Improve the quality of the revenue stream to drive the multiple higher
  • This Board is Ripe For a Change

    • There are three people on the Board that have been there for 17+
    • The average age of the board is 63
    • Given the increasing role of technology in the industry and the company, nobody on the board has the relevant experience

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Short Tokyo?

Takeaway: We still don't see signs of a rising sun anytime soon.

Heli-Ben IV ran out of fuel overnight – Yen ramped +1.5% to $104.23 and the Nikkei resumed its crash, closing down -1.4% to -21.6% from the Global Equity #Bubble high of 2015. Reiterating the short on Japanese Equities; fighting the BOJ continues to work as the #BeliefSystem continues to break-down.

 

Short Tokyo? - nikkei usdjpy

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 7 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 7 26


July 26, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.63 1.46 1.58
SPX
S&P 500
2,129 2,179 2,168
RUT
Russell 2000
1,179 1,215 1,207
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,951 5,120 5,097
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
15,909 16,970 16,620
DAX
German DAX Composite
9,903 10,258 10,198
VIX
Volatility Index
11.72 16.69 12.87
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
96.31 97.99 97.33
EURUSD
Euro
1.09 1.11 1.09
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
103.15 107.31 105.80
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
42.28 45.13 43.13
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.60 2.83 2.71
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,311 1,354 1,327
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.11 2.26 2.21
AAPL
Apple Inc.
96.18 100.94 97.34
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
729 752 739
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
81.94 91.76 87.66
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
60.98 64.54 63.87
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
19.25 22.23 20.86
GILD
Gilead Sciences
82.76 88.72 88.55



Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.37%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.32%
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