3 Charts: Don't Buy Equity Market All-Time Highs

Takeaway: As consensus macro piles into the S&P 500, total equity market volume is crashing and the VIX hits a disquieting level.

3 Charts: Don't Buy Equity Market All-Time Highs - consensus cartoon 06.21.2016

Sell low, cover high, baby!

That's the latest expressed by consensus macro positioning as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week.

"The S&P 500 (index + E-mini) net LONG position ramped another +94,526 contracts last week to +154,009 futures & options contracts. To put that in context, that’s a +2.37x move on a 1-year Z-score (at the lows in February, it was a net SHORT position of -280,000 contracts)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes this morning.

3 Charts: Don't Buy Equity Market All-Time Highs - positioning

On a related note, a no confidence vote for the all-time high came by way of total equity market volume which crashed -23% versus its 1-year average on Friday:

3 Charts: Don't Buy Equity Market All-Time Highs - volume 7 25

Volatility?

The VIX is registering a foreboding level. As Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake pointed out in Friday's Early Look:

"In the Chart of the Day below we simply show VIX vs S&P500 (S&P500 is inverted on right axis). What you’ll simply notice is how simply effective it is to take down gross exposure and tighten net exposure when VIX goes <13."

 

#Simple

 

3 Charts: Don't Buy Equity Market All-Time Highs - 7 22 16 CoD2

None of this bodes well for the bulls blindly buying the all-time high.