CLIENT TALKING POINTS
USD
Another great week for the US Dollar ahead of what should be a hot Q2 US GDP report (Friday); US Dollar Index +0.9% week-over-week and +4.0% month-over-month, taking out hopes for a “weak dollar tailwind” for earnings…
Oil
Continues to break-down this morning with WTI -0.6% at $43.91 with an immediate-term TRADE risk range of 43.09-45.61; WTI was -5.3% week-over-week and has deflated -11.8% during the USD’s +4% one-month ramp.
SPY
Sell low, cover high, baby! SP500 (index + E-mini) net LONG position ramped another +94,526 contracts last week to +154,009 futures & options contracts; to put that in context, that’s a +2.37x move on a 1-yr z-score (at the lows in FEB, it was a net SHORT position of -280,000 contracts).
TOP LONG IDEAS
GLD
Gold (GLD) = Protection from global currency devaluation and inflation/down USD – You can travel anywhere on earth and get a quote in local currency.
TLT
Long Bonds (TLT) = #GrowthSlowing, yield curve compression.
TIP
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) = Combination of the above exposures.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/16 | 60% | 0% | 3% | 14% | 17% | 6% |
| 7/25/16 | 67% | 0% | 3% | 10% | 12% | 8% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/16 | 60% | 0% | 9% | 42% | 52% | 18% |
| 7/25/16 | 67% | 0% | 9% | 30% | 36% | 24% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
[NEW] Why I Remain An Unrepentant Bear app.hedgeye.com/insights/52552… via Mike O'Rourke $SPY #markets #economy pic.twitter.com/95Be5lUEj3
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Knowing others is wisdom, knowing yourself is enlightenment.”
–Lao Tzu
STAT OF THE DAY
David Justice had 305 career homeruns.