• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: The S&P 500 hit all-time highs on cycle-high buyback activity and a new cycle high (overly-optimistic) forward multiple.

The current S&P 500 forward multiple is at a new cycle peak on earnings expectations that assume positive earnings growth by Q3 2016, +9% in Q4 2016, and +16% and +14% by Q1 and Q2 2017 respectively. Starting in Q4 of this year, positive earnings growth expectations are baked in for every sector for three quarters through Q2 of 2017.

Are Old Wall Consenseless Earnings Expectations Out To Lunch? - earnings expec

In other words, the S&P 500 hit all-time highs on cycle-high buyback activity and a new cycle high forward multiple. Note the optimism embedded in those earnings expectations as seen in the chart above.

Estimates too high? You decide.

Emblematic of the ongoing earnings recession, here's how Q2 2016 earnings are shaking out so far. Still bullish?

Are Old Wall Consenseless Earnings Expectations Out To Lunch? - earnings q2 7 22