Drawdowns from respective 2015 highs:
- Germany, DAX: -13.7%
- Italy, FTSE MIB: -30.3%
- France, CAC: -16.1%
- Spain, IBEX: -25.8%
Takeaway: Here's our take on some of today's top financial stories.
A report from S&P Global published Thursday says that Chinese companies will account for nearly two-thirds of new credit raised globally by 2020. S&P forecasts that outstanding debt will expand by half to $75 trillion by then.
"Indeed, investors are buying speculative-grade corporate debt, including those from emerging markets, and extending maturities to generate positive yields ... the reward is becoming increasingly unsustainable."
OUR TAKE: Another risk to monitor closely.
According to Fitch, sovereign credit ratings are on track for a record number of downgrades this year (the worst since 2011). "At 30 June, there were 22 sovereigns on Negative Outlook and only six on Positive Outlook. The former include major economies such as the UK, Japan, Brazil and Russia as well as Saudi Arabia."
OUR TAKE: Our subscribers have long had "0%" exposure to International Equities precisely because the global growth continues to slow.
"No need and no possibility for helicopter money," BOJ head Haruhiko Kuroda said in a BBC Radio 4 program that was broadcast Thursday. “At this moment, the Bank of Japan has three options with quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates." The Yen popped 1% on the news, even though a Wall Street Journal article this morning reported that the conversation was recorded in June before helicopter money speculation began.
OUR TAKE: Helicopter money or not, the slow growth slog will continue to plague Japan's economy.
European Central Bank head Mario Draghi argued, on Thursday, that a "public backstop" would be "very useful" in helping Italy's problem-plagued banks sell down bad loans. Italian bank UniCredit finished up 2% on the statement.
OUR TAKE: Much like helicopter money speculation in Japan, Draghi's comments don't change economic reality. #EuropeImploding
After cutting global growth expectations again (see chart below), the IMF is out with proposals on how best to "spark" economic growth. Here they are:
OUR TAKE: Thanks for coming out.
Hedgeye Potomac, in conjunction with the international law firm of Squire Patton Boggs, will be hosting a series of calls on Brexit and will first examine the legal and procedural implications.
With Prime Minister Theresa May now formally installed at 10 Downing Street, we will discuss with Squire’s Brexit Task Force the events following the UK’s exit vote from the EU and what the outcome of the vote spells for the UK and the rest of the world.
The call will take place tomorrow, July 22nd at 11:00AM EST with prepared remarks followed by Q&A.
KEY TOPICS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE
ABOUT SQUIRE PATTON BOGGS
Squire Patton Boggs is a full service global law firm that provides insight at the point where law, business and government meet. Squire Patton Boggs consists of over 1,500 lawyers in 45 offices across 21 countries.
Squire Patton Boggs’ Brexit Task Force is a multi-disciplinary team of lawyers and policy advisers who are uniquely placed to support clients from across the globe on the effects Brexit will have on business.
The Public Policy teams, particularly in Brussels and Washington, D.C., consist of top tier lawyers with considerable public policy experience - which helps them provide seamless and coordinated discussions with the relevant authorities.
Confirmation Number: 13641782
Materials: CLICK HERE
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Takeaway: "Biotech IPOs and venture capital fundraising is down. Slow growth is negative for risk appetites which is negative for fundraising."
On The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Healthcare analyst Andrew Freedman responded to a subscriber's question about Biotech (IBB) stocks. As Friedman said:
"If you want to be long biotech here you have to ask yourself: Do you think the fundraising environment is going to get incrementally better from here? Biotech IPOs are down and venture capital fundraising is down. Meanwhile, slow growth is negative for risk appetites which is negative for fundraising."
It's a viscious cycle. Below are three charts that outline why he thinks the biotech bubble has popped:
Click images to enlarge.
Takeaway: Third Time's The Charm?; The Kids Are Alright; Missed Opportunities
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
“Politics makes me sick.”
-William Howard Taft
Day three of the Republican convention concluded with a positive shift with a speech by veep nominee Mike Pence who focused on introducing himself to an unfamiliar nation, while building on party unity and important policy ideals. Pence’s role will be simple in the coming months, he’ll provide a balance between Donald Trump and the Republicans, adding much-needed substance and value to both the party and the ticket.
But it wouldn’t be a day at a 2016 Republican convention without some drama or controversy. In what we think will be remembered as political miscalculation, Senator Ted Cruz called on Republicans to “vote your conscience” without endorsing Trump and was booed off stage (of course, with Trump seizing the opportunity to step on Cruz’s message by entering the convention hall at just the right time) providing Trump with the singlemost unifying moment of the convention so far.
Most of America knows Trump for his real estate deals and from his reality tv show, but they don’t know him personally and he may actually be a good guy. As his most trusted advisers and surrogates, his family has moved to humanize him, bring him down to earth, and show his sensibility. Trump’s family has provided audiences nationwide with a different view of the man running for president – with the hope that he’s someone they can relate to on a personal level.
Melania’s speech missed it for obvious reasons, but Donald Jr., Tiffany, and Eric have been the messengers he’s needed all along - and Ivanka, the most anticipated of the five, will have her turn tonight.
Tonight will be give Trump the opportunity to turn the page on a Republican convention that has been part coronation, part Keystone Cops, part soap opera. We’re beating a dead horse into the ground, but his campaign continues to be late to the game on everything - missing opportunity after opportunity to shore up the base before the convention even started as he’s been the presumptive nominee since winning Indiana on May 3.
Now, instead of focusing their attention on critical undecideds and independents at the convention given a captive national audience, Trump and Republicans keep finding themselves struggling to unify, stay on message (see Trump’s comments on NATO yesterday) and offer up a positive vision for the country.
In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Healthcare analyst Andrew Freedman discuss the macro and micro fundamentals behind the bursting biotech bubble.
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The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.