Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 7 19


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 7 19


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 7 19


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 7 19


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 7 19


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 7 19

The Troubling Truth Behind The Rally To All-Time Highs

Takeaway: Volume continues to crash into the all-time closing SPY highs – yesterday’s Total US Equity Volume was down -20% versus its 1-month average.

The Troubling Truth Behind The Rally To All-Time Highs - volume cartoon


The no-volume rally to all-time highs in the S&P 500 is disconcerting to say the least. Why?


No Volume = No Conviction


Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier today:


"Volume continues to crash into the all-time closing SPY highs – yesterday’s Total US Equity Volume (including dark pool) was down -20% and -24%, respectively versus its 1-month and 1-year averages; this cannot be bullish for active vs. passive flows (in June, active saw its biggest monthly outflow since Oct 2008)"


CHART OF THE DAY: Expensive, Like 1929

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... Longer-term though, on something like P/E ratios, Shiller has been proven right. Today’s Chart of The Day is a picture Shiller emblazoned into my thick but impressionable skull in the 1990s. It reminded me that today’s US stock market “multiple” looks like it did in 1929 (you can find Shiller’s long-term mean reversion and behavioral research at"


CHART OF THE DAY: Expensive, Like 1929 - 07.19.16 EL Chart

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

REPLAY | Q&A with Tom Tobin - What to Expect in Healthcare

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.


**Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported this morning and set the quarter's tone for the rest of Healthcare.


Hedgeye Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and analyst Andrew Freedman were the studio today to discuss specific implications for ATHN, AHS, MDRX, ILMN, ZBH, HOLX and MD. Tom and Andrew recapped last week's Themes Presentation, which included a comprehensive overview of our #ACATaper and Healthcare Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.

Cartoon of the Day: Extinct?

Cartoon of the Day: Extinct? - earnings cartoon 07.18.2016


Earnings season... hawkish or dovish?

The BS Filter: Is Obama 'Peddling Fiction'? ... & BIS Warns Central Bank Policies 'Dangerous'

Takeaway: Here's our take on some of today's top financial stories.

The BS Filter: Is Obama 'Peddling Fiction'? ... & BIS Warns Central Bank Policies 'Dangerous' - obama

Is President Obama "Peddling Fiction"?

"Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction," President Obama said in his final State of the Union address this January. Sadly, it appears, President Obama is peddling his own brand of fiction these days. On Friday, the White House published its "Mid-Session Review," with updated forecasts on the U.S. economy. Not good. The White House now expects GDP will rise 1.9% down from its 2.6% prediction in February. 


OUR TAKE: "Ironically, our GDP forecast for Q2 is now higher than both White House and Consensus bulower for Q3," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today.

Brexit = Freedom

"Ministers are aiming to secure ground-breaking free trade deals with zones ten times the size of the EU before Britain leaves in 2019," the Daily Mail reports. Britain is aiming "to secure free trade deals with 12 countries before leaving the EU in 2019 as Australia and the US emerge at the front of the queue for deal worth billions to UK economy."


OUR TAKE: "This is the liberty vote in motion," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes. Britain might just benefit from Brexit. Time will tell.

This story is An Embarrassment

The BS Filter: Is Obama 'Peddling Fiction'? ... & BIS Warns Central Bank Policies 'Dangerous' - bloomberg story emoji


OUR TAKE: Enough said...

Yikes! A Warning From the BIS

According to a paper written by economists at the central bank watchdog the Bank for International Settlements:


"Unconventional monetary policy measures, in our view, are likely to be subject to diminishing returns. The balance between benefits and costs tends to worsen the longer they stay in place. Exit difficulties and political economy problems loom large. Short-term gain may well give way to longer-term pain.


As the central bank’s policy room for manoeuvre narrows, so does its ability to deal with the next recession, which will inevitably come. The overall pressure to rely on increasingly experimental, at best highly unpredictable, at worst dangerous, measures may at some point become too strong. Ultimately, central banks’ credibility and legitimacy could come into question."


OUR TAKE: Well said...


Stories worth mentioning:

  • SoftBank to buy ARM for $32 billion in cash, paying a 43% premium for the group. -Reuters
  • Chief spokesman for Japan's Prime Minister Abe rules out deficit bonds to fund new stimulus package. -Bloomberg
  • IMF says Venezuelan inflation could top 1,640% in 2017. -MarketWatch

Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.