CLIENT TALKING POINTS
Japan
The Heli-Ben $$ Copter rumoring has done a week of wonder for the Nikkei, ramping it +10.6% in the last 6 trading days; sadly it’s still -20% from the chart many chased at the 2015 peak … and economic growth continues to slow.
Earnings
43 of 500 companies have officially printed their GAAP and non-GAAP stories for an aggregate year-over-year EPS decline of -7.1%. Financials EPS are currently -8.3% y/y and allegedly they all “beat”; we'd still sell them on bounces from here.
Volume
Continues to crash into the all-time closing SPY highs – yesterday’s Total US Equity Volume (including dark pool) was down -20% and -24%, respectively vs. its 1 month and 1year averages; this cannot be bullish for active vs. passive flows (in June, active saw its biggest monthly outflow since Oct 2008).
TOP LONG IDEAS
TLT
Long Bonds (TLT) = #GrowthSlowing, yield curve compression.
GLD
Gold (GLD) = Protection from global currency devaluation and inflation/down USD – You can travel anywhere on earth and get a quote in local currency .
TIP
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) = Combination of the above exposures.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/16 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 30% | 7% |
| 7/19/16 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 30% | 7% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/16 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 91% | 21% |
| 7/19/16 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 39% | 91% | 21% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
Buy the all-time high? No thank you. app.hedgeye.com/insights/52414… via @KeithMcCullough $SPY #stocks #markets pic.twitter.com/7WKBaFXhfh
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The only way to be number one is to be number one.”
-Anonymous
STAT OF THE DAY
Derek Jeter's career batting average is .310