QUICK TAKE: What's Ahead For Oil Prices

QUICK TAKE: What's Ahead For Oil Prices - oil cartoon 03.29.2016


Below is analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning: 


"Stronger Dollar = weaker reflation returns… no follow through to Oil being +1.2% (WTI) last week as it’s still -5% in the last month and trading below @Hedgeye TREND resistance of $47.37/barrel."


CHART OF THE DAY: A Closer Look At Retail Sales

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 


"... A few points on why we’ve been revising GDP higher throughout the quarter:

  1. The government has been understating “inflation” in both GDP and PCE Consumption reports
  2. When you understate inflation, you can overstate “real” consumption and GDP growth

A real-world example of this is Retail Sales. Because it’s reported nominally, lower gas prices actually drag on reported growth while higher prices – despite acting as a tax on real consumption – actually manifest as stronger reported growth."


CHART OF THE DAY: A Closer Look At Retail Sales - 07.18.16 EL Chart

REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.


Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)




1. My Thoughts On a 'Heartbreaking' Healthcare 'Horror Story' (7/14/2016)



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this week, Hedgeye Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin answers a “heartbreaking” question from a subscriber on the collapse of ACA exchanges and the impact it’s having on American families.


2. Is Income Inequality Depressing Demand? (7/13/2016)



In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe answers a subscriber’s question on how whether income inequality in the U.S. is depressing aggregate demand.


3. About Everything | REPLAY: Driverless Cars: Unsafe at Any Speed? (7/12/16) 



In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the future of driverless cars, assessing potential pitfalls that could ultimately delay the adoption of fully-autonomous vehicles.


"Yes, the 'low-hanging fruit' of semiautonomous driving has already been plucked," Howe writes. "But full autonomy requires infallible higher-order thinking, a golden apple which will prove difficult—if not impossible—to grasp anytime soon."


Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.


4. Penney: The 2 Most Important Things In The Restaurant Space (7/11/2016)



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney explains how slowing restaurant sales and traffic points to a slowing economy.



Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 


Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.

the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)




1. Levitated (7/15/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - why so short 07.15.2016


Definition of levitate: "to rise or cause to rise and hover in the air, especially by means of supernatural or magical power."


2. Beta Bro (7/14/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Beta Bro cartoon 07.14.2016


We present to you "Beta Bro." The defender of mediocrity in the active management community and all things S&P 500 beta.


3. Clueless (7/13/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed  Haven t a clue  cartoon 07.13.2016


The Fed-induced bubble in financial markets has undoubtedly made the rich richer while its easy money policies have devalued the purchasing power of average Americans.


4. Central Banking 101 (7/12/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - negative interest rates cartoon 07.12.2016


According to the Fiscal Times:


"Japan's household sentiment soured and inflation expectations hit the lowest since the Bank of Japan adopted its massive stimulus program in 2013, a quarterly central bank survey showed... The ratio of households who said they trusted the Bank of Japan's policy management also hit a seven-year low, with more than half of the respondents doubting whether it was independent from government interference, the survey showed."


5. The Italian Job (7/11/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Italian bank cartoon


Deutsche Bank’s chief economist said Europe's banks need a major recapitalization to the tune of €150 billion, as worries about Italian banks continue to make headlines. "And so Old Wall's begging for another bailout begins," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today.

The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 18th of July through the 22nd of July is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 07.15.16 Week Ahead

Cartoon of the Day: Levitated

Cartoon of the Day: Levitated - why so short 07.15.2016


Definition of levitate: "to rise or cause to rise and hover in the air, especially by means of supernatural or magical power."

get free cartoon of the day!

Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.