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Takeaway: A closer look at CFTC futures and options positioning reveals that consensus remains rather long the S&P 500.

Consensus Is Crowding Into a Precarious Position | $SPY - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

Below is analysis from our Macro team in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"As we highlighted on The Macro Show yesterday, the CFTC net futures and options positioning in the S&P was already long 58K contracts moving into this week, or +1.68x on a TTM z-score basis (and that’s positioning through last Tuesday). With the low volume melt-up moves from Fri-Tues (S&P +2.6%) , expect an even longer consensus position at the end of this week.


Go ahead and buy all time-highs on peak cycle forward multiples (and that’s assuming the consensus expectation for a major corporate profit turnaround) in a crowded long position, but we’re going to sit it out."

Consensus Is Crowding Into a Precarious Position | $SPY - cftc net long pos