About Everything | REPLAY: Driverless Cars: Unsafe at Any Speed?

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the future of driverless cars, assessing potential pitfalls that could ultimately delay the adoption of fully-autonomous vehicles.


"Yes, the 'low-hanging fruit' of semiautonomous driving has already been plucked," Howe writes. "But full autonomy requires infallible higher-order thinking, a golden apple which will prove difficult—if not impossible—to grasp anytime soon."


Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.



JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2


“Tell the truth, work hard, and come to dinner on time.“

    -  Gerald R. Ford


FRENEMIES: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are set to stump together later today in NH in an attempt to unite the Democratic party just two weeks ahead of Philly. The joint appearance comes just days after Sanders and his lieutenants secured several progressive wins on the convention platform: climate change, health care and a minimum wage increase, as well as a major loss on getting the party to oppose the TPIP given the president’s support of the pact. Everyone will be all smiles on the podium as Sanders is set to finally throw his weight behind Clinton after weeks of high level overtures and concessions, but the jury is still out on how enthusiastic Sanders will be on the hustings this fall.


FISCAL YEAR FUNDING FIASCO: If you believed there was any chance of Congress agreeing on its annual spending bills this year, forget it – it’s time to focus on avoiding a government shutdown. As we mentioned numerous times throughout the past few months, the process of moving individual appropriations bills was limping along with some progress in each chamber, but with Congress about to call it quits for the summer, almost all hope has been lost. Republicans have now shifted their attention to a timeline for a stopgap spending bill they would need to move before the end of the fiscal year on September 30.


HOOSIER PICK?: Indiana hasn’t gotten this much attention since Rudy got playing time - former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is now launching a comeback bid in what’s now expected to be a hotly contested Senate race, upending the landscape for a seat Republicans expected to hold easily this fall. Bayh has been hard-pressed to run since he left the Senate in 2010 and currently holds a rock-solid war chest of $10 million. The state may still run red, but don’t expect it turn overnight – it’s now a main focus for Republicans. Speaking of decisions...Donald Trump is also set to return to the state that put him over the top back in May - though this time it will be arm-in-arm with Governor Mike Pence who is at the top of Trump’s veep shortlist.


SPEAKER ENGAGEMENT: Speaker Paul Ryan has finally agreed to speak at the convention, becoming the most notable stumper on a somewhat atypical lineup. Ryan’s speech is expected to be penned by Ryan himself and will focus on the House Republican agenda and the sharp contrast between Republican ideals and another term of progressive Democratic policies. Expect Ryan’s speech to be more of a pitch for the party than a pitch for the nominee.


CONVENTION COUP?: With less than a week to go until the convention, anti-Trump forces are scrambling faster than ever to dethrone the presumptive nominee. Removing Donald Trump may be their main objective, but another option is being weighed – attempting to select his veep akin to an arranged marriage. The nominee's running mate is still technically decided by an independent delegate vote and delegates have no obligation to support the nominee's choice. The Rules Committee is set to meet later this week to decide convention rules and the party platform, and we doubt any coup will succeed, but this could get interesting depending on Trump’s highly anticipated pick reportedly coming at the end of this week.


RETRANS CONSENT FIGHT FOCUSED ON INTERIM CARRIAGE MANDATE: Our Telecommunications-Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur shared his insight on the uphill battle the cable operators are facing in their fight for interim carriage mandates in the retrans disputes. You can read his piece here.


BREXIT: WHO’S PARTYING: Our geopolitical analyst Dan Christman shared his insight on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union and who the real winners are. You can read his piece here.


Invite: Former FERC Commissioner is Guest Speaker for Call on Income Tax Allowance for Pipeline MLPs

Takeaway: Call with Guest Speaker Marc Spitzer is Tuesday 7/12 at 1:00 pm EST

On July 1st, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued a decision on the income tax allowance for pipelines owned by pass-through entities that could have significant negative implications for MLPs with regulated pipe assets.  See our note from last weekTo learn more about this issue, as well as the inner workings of the FERC more broadly, we will host a guest speaker call with energy lawyer and former FERC commissioner Marc Spitzer on Tuesday 7/12 at 1pm EST. 


Mr. Spitzer is a partner at Steptoe & Johnson where he represents utilities and energy companies before the FERC, at state utility commissions, Congress, federal agencies and state legislatures.  He is a former FERC commissioner, having served from 2006 to 2011.  Link to Marc Spitzer's Full Bio 


Topics for Discussion


·         The current FERC policy on income tax allowances


·         The D.C. Circuit's decision in United Airlines v. FERC


·         How might the FERC address the D.C. Circuit's decision?  What are the options available to the FERC?


·         What are the most and least likely outcomes?


·         Timing: how long might it take for this to play out?


·         More broadly, what is the current FERC's attitude towards regulating the pipeline industry?  How might the coming election change the FERC, if at all?


·         And more...


If you have any questions for Marc, email them to  and we will ask them on your behalf. 


Call Dial-In Details


·         Tuesday, July 12, at 1:00 pm EST


·         Toll Free:


·         Toll:


·         UK: 0


·         Confirmation Number: 13641329  


Please visit for more information.  

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Cartoon of the Day: The Italian Job

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Deutsche Bank’s chief economist said Europe's banks need a major recapitalization to the tune of €150 billion, as worries about Italian banks continue to make headlines. "And so Old Wall's begging for another bailout begins," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today.

Penney: The 2 Most Important Things In The Restaurant Space

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney explains how slowing restaurant sales and traffic points to a slowing economy.


Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 


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The BS Filter: Begging For Bailouts, #EmploymentSlowing, The NIRP Effect

Takeaway: "Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility." -Nassim Taleb

The BS Filter: Begging For Bailouts, #EmploymentSlowing, The NIRP Effect - earth


Hedgeye's Take On Today's Financial News


Below is a collection of interesting links and insights from today's news with analysis filtered through our macro lens. This installment discusses last Friday's Jobs Report, Deutsche Bank's chief economist begs for a bailout, central planning nonsense, and the latest country to fall prey to negative interest rate.


"Over the past year, job growth is up 1.7%, which is a touch below the average expansion of 1.8% witnessed over the past four years," WSJ economics correspondent Nick Timiraos wrote following Friday's jobs report. Timiraos tacitly admitted the jobs report slowdown in a tweet showing "hiring, change from year ago" that has slowed from 2.14% in June 2015 to 1.72% this June. 


OUR TAKE: As we've noted many times before (most recently in "Don't Believe the June Jobs Report Hype"), the peak in year-over-year non-farm payroll growth was February 2015. Take a look at the chart below. We reiterate our call... #EmploymentSlowing.


The BS Filter: Begging For Bailouts, #EmploymentSlowing, The NIRP Effect - nfp 7 8

"Begging For Bailouts"

"Deutsche Bank's chief economist urged the European Union to set up a 150 billion euro ($165.39 billion) rescue fund to recapitalize European banks," German newspaper Die Welt reported on Monday.


OUR TAKE: "Old Wall is begging for another round of bailouts," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote this morning. Just sad.

Central Planning 101

"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered a new round of fiscal stimulus spending after a crushing election victory over the weekend as evidence mounted the corporate sector is floundering due to weak demand," Reuters reported over the weekend. Before the election, "ruling party sources" told Reuters, the government was ready to spend more than 10 trillion yen ($100 billion).


OUR TAKE: Central planners are stepping up efforts to prop up equity markets and their slowing economies. And while the currency war continues to heat up, don't bet on the whims of bureaucrats.

More nonsense...

"The Bank of England mulls property fund shake up to stop panic sales," the Sunday Telegraph newspaper said late on Saturday. The BoE is apparently considering curbs on property investment fund withdrawals.


OUR TAKE: "Central-market planning remains the socialist rage," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Question: Can central bankers fix the underlying reality that caused the outflows to begin with? No. The central planning #BeliefSystem is breaking down.

The NIRP Effect: dutch 10-Yr Goes NEgative

"The Netherlands has joined a select group of countries able to boast of negative borrowing rates on 10-year debt. For the first time, yields on benchmark Dutch government bonds dipped below zero – hitting minus 0.0001 per cent on Friday afternoon," the Financial Times reports. The Netherlands joins the likes of Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and Denmark in global negative-yielding debt (which now amounts to $13 trillion).


OUR TAKE: As #GrowthSlowing continues to ravage economies across the globe, bond yields will continue to fall. 

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.