Don't Believe the June Jobs Report Hype

Takeaway: Employment growth continued to slow from its 2.3% y-o-y peak in February 2015 to 1.73% in June.

For those of you out there who actually study #TheCycle (rather than blindly accept the manic financial media's headlines at face value) here's the key chart to consider. It shows the continued slowdown in jobs growth since February 2015.


Click images to enlarge

Don't Believe the June Jobs Report Hype - nfp 7 8


Digging a little deeper than just the headline 287,000 number... May was revised down from 38,000 to 11,000. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough points out, in other words...



Here's the detailed breakdown to study today. As you can see, the key takeaway is...



Don't Believe the June Jobs Report Hype - employment summary 7 8

McCullough: Here’s Who’s Really Getting Paid

In this excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses who’s really getting paid in the current  market and economic setup. 

An Animated History Of U.S. #GrowthSlowing (In Just One Minute)

Takeaway: If you don't do macro, macro will do you.

During his presentation of our top Q3 macro themes to our institutional customers yesterday, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough empasized the importance of understanding the cycle. The one-minute video below sheds addiitional light on this economic reality.


Click below to watch.

Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 7 8


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 7 8


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 7 8


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 7 8


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 7 8

Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report | Commodities: Bullish Or Bearish?

Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report | Commodities: Bullish Or Bearish? - reflation cartoon 10.13.2015


"Most things Commodities 'Reflation' have one thing to thank in 2016, and that's #GrowthSlowing => Dovish Fed => Down Dollar," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this morning. "But what if the jobs print is 'good' (albeit slowing in TRENDING rate of change terms)? Dollar Up, Commodity Reflation Down?"



McCullough continues: "With CRB Index and Oil -5% and -10%, respectively, in the last month I’m sure glad I didn’t chase those April-May reflation charts. To be continued…"


CHART OF THE DAY: This Won't Help Slowing Jobs Growth

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.


"... One relationship we re-highlighted on the call  – and one worth highlighting again here since it’s Jobs day – is the relationship between Temp hiring and peak Employment.   


The temporal procession looks like this: Temp Hiring Peaks => Jobs Openings Peak => Total Employment Peaks


Specifically, Temp hiring has lead the peak in Job Openings by 9 and 8 months, respectively, over the last two cycles and Job Openings peak shortly ahead of the peak in Total NFP."



CHART OF THE DAY: This Won't Help Slowing Jobs Growth - 7 8 16 Temp COD

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