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Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report | Commodities: Bullish Or Bearish?

Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report | Commodities: Bullish Or Bearish? - reflation cartoon 10.13.2015

 

"Most things Commodities 'Reflation' have one thing to thank in 2016, and that's #GrowthSlowing => Dovish Fed => Down Dollar," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this morning. "But what if the jobs print is 'good' (albeit slowing in TRENDING rate of change terms)? Dollar Up, Commodity Reflation Down?"

 

 

McCullough continues: "With CRB Index and Oil -5% and -10%, respectively, in the last month I’m sure glad I didn’t chase those April-May reflation charts. To be continued…"

 


CHART OF THE DAY: This Won't Help Slowing Jobs Growth

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... One relationship we re-highlighted on the call  – and one worth highlighting again here since it’s Jobs day – is the relationship between Temp hiring and peak Employment.   

 

The temporal procession looks like this: Temp Hiring Peaks => Jobs Openings Peak => Total Employment Peaks

 

Specifically, Temp hiring has lead the peak in Job Openings by 9 and 8 months, respectively, over the last two cycles and Job Openings peak shortly ahead of the peak in Total NFP."

 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: This Won't Help Slowing Jobs Growth - 7 8 16 Temp COD


Cartoon of the Day: Dumbbells

Cartoon of the Day: Dumbbells - Rate hike dumbells cartoon 07.07.2016

 

At the beginning of the year, some Fed officials suggested as many as five rate hikes in 2016. Not today. With a Fed gone dovish, the market is now skeptical of any rate hikes this year.


Early Look

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CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET)

Takeaway: We will provide a comprehensive overview of our #ACATaper and Healthcare Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.

CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET) - insurance coverage

3Q16 healthcare themes conference call

We hope you can join us for our 3Q16 Healthcare Themes Call on Thursday, July 14th at 11 AM ET.  We will provide a comprehensive update of our #ACATaper and Healthcare #Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.  The U.S. Medical Economy remains extended after the largest expansion in insured medical consumers in a generation.  Slowing growth in medical consumers, continued deterioration in affordability, aggressive payor reforms, company leverage at 15-year highs, and multiples at 10-year highs is a recipe for downside.  We don't believe that the U.S. Medical Economy growth recovery of 2014 -2015 is durable, but rather a temporary boost in consumption driven by massive government stimulus.

 

We are also extremely pleased to announce that Emily Evans, Director of Health Policy at Hedgeye, will be joining the presentation and sharing her views on major policy initiatives including Alternative Payment Models, MACRA, and post-acute reform, among other topics that significantly impact our fundamental views.

 

Please contact  for further information.  An invite with dial-in instructions will be sent to subscribers ahead of the conference call.

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH VIDEO PREVIEW

 

CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET) - 20160707 Themes Cover2

key topics WILL include

#ACATaper Update and Review

    • JOLTS and Medicaid Pent-Up Demand
    • Exchange Enrollment
    • Premium/Deductible Affordability

Demographic Trends

    • Impact of Aging Population
    • Per Capita Spend by Age Cohort
    • Utilization History

#Recession Risk

    • Employment vs. Privately Insured
    • Hospital Bad Debt Expense
    • Real Private Fixed Investment
    • Biotech Fundraising Cycle

#AGGRESSIVE Policy

    • Alternative payment models – not just a CMS thing:
      • Health Care Payment Learning Action Network, Catalyst for Payment Reform, Vanderbilt Center for Health Care Market Innovation. Some are working, some are not – we expect bundled payments will see significant take-up
    • MACRA – has even greater potential to change how medicine is practiced than anything even the ACA Post-acute reform
    • Post-acute reform

consensus expectations

    • Style Factor and Surprise Analysis
    • Estimate Revisions
    • Relative and Absolute Valuation

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 


15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report

Takeaway: Non-farm payroll growth has been slowing since it peaked in February 2015.

Last month's jobs report (pre-Brexit) wasn't an "anomaly." It was part of #TheCycle's trend. 

 

15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report - nfp 7 7

#EMPLOYMENTSLOWING


Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks

Takeaway: Global bond yields continue to make all-time lows as equity markets get drubbed. Got #GrowthSlowing?

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - stocks. bear in the woods 01.06.2016

 

Don't believe the permabull stock market hype.

 

Take a look at global equity performance over the past year. It's been dismal.

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - equities 7 7

 

...but there's always a bull market somewhere. 

 

Have you been long the Long Bond (TLT)? That's been our Macro team's biggest call for well over a year now. It's worked out well for our subscribers The 10yr Treasury yield continues to fall with its global peers as growth continues to slow. And that's generated significant returns for investors.

 

Take a look below at a chart of 10yr yields around the world (indexed to 100 on 7/8/15).

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - bond yields 7 7 16

 

In other words, the effervescent hope that equity markets are "so cheap you simply have to buy now" hasn't come true. 

 

We're sticking with "expensive" Long Bonds.


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