At the beginning of the year, some Fed officials suggested as many as five rate hikes in 2016. Not today. With a Fed gone dovish, the market is now skeptical of any rate hikes this year.
Takeaway: We will provide a comprehensive overview of our #ACATaper and Healthcare Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.
We hope you can join us for our 3Q16 Healthcare Themes Call on Thursday, July 14th at 11 AM ET. We will provide a comprehensive update of our #ACATaper and Healthcare #Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis. The U.S. Medical Economy remains extended after the largest expansion in insured medical consumers in a generation. Slowing growth in medical consumers, continued deterioration in affordability, aggressive payor reforms, company leverage at 15-year highs, and multiples at 10-year highs is a recipe for downside. We don't believe that the U.S. Medical Economy growth recovery of 2014 -2015 is durable, but rather a temporary boost in consumption driven by massive government stimulus.
We are also extremely pleased to announce that Emily Evans, Director of Health Policy at Hedgeye, will be joining the presentation and sharing her views on major policy initiatives including Alternative Payment Models, MACRA, and post-acute reform, among other topics that significantly impact our fundamental views.
Please call or e-mail with any questions.
Earlier today the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, hosted its quarterly Macro Themes conference call in which it detailed the THREE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO TRENDS it has identified for 3Q16 and the associated investment implications.
WATCH THE REPLAY BELOW
For the audio replay click here
To access the presentation materials click here
Q3 2016 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW:
-The Hedgeye Macro Team
Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.
Takeaway: Global bond yields continue to make all-time lows as equity markets get drubbed. Got #GrowthSlowing?
Take a look at global equity performance over the past year. It's been dismal.
Have you been long the Long Bond (TLT)? That's been our Macro team's biggest call for well over a year now. It's worked out well for our subscribers The 10yr Treasury yield continues to fall with its global peers as growth continues to slow. And that's generated significant returns for investors.
Take a look below at a chart of 10yr yields around the world (indexed to 100 on 7/8/15).
In other words, the effervescent hope that equity markets are "so cheap you simply have to buy now" hasn't come true.
Takeaway: Clinton Heads Down The Shore; Trump Bump; The Bachelor – Trump Edition;
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”
Not to gamble, but rather to bash Donald Trump in Atlantic City, NJ – the home of Trump’s many bankrupt casinos. Clinton hammered Trump’s promise to do for the nation what he did for his businesses – cautioning that it should be viewed as a warning, not an enticement. Trump’s legacy in Atlantic City is a rough one and Clinton made a killing. It includes four rounds of bankruptcy for the casinos he built there, costing workers, lenders, stockholders and contractors jobs and money. The verbal shots keep flying at the expense of falling credibility ratings for both – just sit back and enjoy the show.
For those of you keeping count, Trump raised $51 million in the five weeks through the end of June, collecting $26 million for his campaign and $25 million for the Republican party. Think back to just a few weeks ago when he had less than $1.3 million in the bank. The bump comes as a sign that his lagging fundraising efforts are finally starting to gain traction and should show Republicans on the Hill that he’s taking this more seriously and just in time for his meetings with them today.
Trump’s veepstakes has resembled a reality tv show as of late - he’s spent this week (it’s not even over yet!) with a different prospect each day. Senators Joni Ernst (IA) and Bob Corker (TN), Governor Mike Pence (IN), and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich have all split time with Trump as he traveled throughout the East Coast (we’re betting Governor Chris Christie is feeling a bit spurned right now). Although Corker and Ernst have all but withdrawn from consideration, we still expect the final rose ceremony – his veep selection announcement – to be sometime next week ahead of the convention.