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Cartoon of the Day: Dumbbells

Cartoon of the Day: Dumbbells - Rate hike dumbells cartoon 07.07.2016

 

At the beginning of the year, some Fed officials suggested as many as five rate hikes in 2016. Not today. With a Fed gone dovish, the market is now skeptical of any rate hikes this year.


CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET)

Takeaway: We will provide a comprehensive overview of our #ACATaper and Healthcare Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.

CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET) - insurance coverage

3Q16 healthcare themes conference call

We hope you can join us for our 3Q16 Healthcare Themes Call on Thursday, July 14th at 11 AM ET.  We will provide a comprehensive update of our #ACATaper and Healthcare #Deflation themes with new datasets and analysis.  The U.S. Medical Economy remains extended after the largest expansion in insured medical consumers in a generation.  Slowing growth in medical consumers, continued deterioration in affordability, aggressive payor reforms, company leverage at 15-year highs, and multiples at 10-year highs is a recipe for downside.  We don't believe that the U.S. Medical Economy growth recovery of 2014 -2015 is durable, but rather a temporary boost in consumption driven by massive government stimulus.

 

We are also extremely pleased to announce that Emily Evans, Director of Health Policy at Hedgeye, will be joining the presentation and sharing her views on major policy initiatives including Alternative Payment Models, MACRA, and post-acute reform, among other topics that significantly impact our fundamental views.

 

Please contact  for further information.  An invite with dial-in instructions will be sent to subscribers ahead of the conference call.

 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH VIDEO PREVIEW

 

CALL INVITE | HEALTHCARE THEMES (7/14/16 at 11:00AM ET) - 20160707 Themes Cover2

key topics WILL include

#ACATaper Update and Review

    • JOLTS and Medicaid Pent-Up Demand
    • Exchange Enrollment
    • Premium/Deductible Affordability

Demographic Trends

    • Impact of Aging Population
    • Per Capita Spend by Age Cohort
    • Utilization History

#Recession Risk

    • Employment vs. Privately Insured
    • Hospital Bad Debt Expense
    • Real Private Fixed Investment
    • Biotech Fundraising Cycle

#AGGRESSIVE Policy

    • Alternative payment models – not just a CMS thing:
      • Health Care Payment Learning Action Network, Catalyst for Payment Reform, Vanderbilt Center for Health Care Market Innovation. Some are working, some are not – we expect bundled payments will see significant take-up
    • MACRA – has even greater potential to change how medicine is practiced than anything even the ACA Post-acute reform
    • Post-acute reform

consensus expectations

    • Style Factor and Surprise Analysis
    • Estimate Revisions
    • Relative and Absolute Valuation

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 


15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report

Takeaway: Non-farm payroll growth has been slowing since it peaked in February 2015.

Last month's jobs report (pre-Brexit) wasn't an "anomaly." It was part of #TheCycle's trend. 

 

15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report - nfp 7 7

#EMPLOYMENTSLOWING


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Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks

Takeaway: Global bond yields continue to make all-time lows as equity markets get drubbed. Got #GrowthSlowing?

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - stocks. bear in the woods 01.06.2016

 

Don't believe the permabull stock market hype.

 

Take a look at global equity performance over the past year. It's been dismal.

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - equities 7 7

 

...but there's always a bull market somewhere. 

 

Have you been long the Long Bond (TLT)? That's been our Macro team's biggest call for well over a year now. It's worked out well for our subscribers The 10yr Treasury yield continues to fall with its global peers as growth continues to slow. And that's generated significant returns for investors.

 

Take a look below at a chart of 10yr yields around the world (indexed to 100 on 7/8/15).

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - bond yields 7 7 16

 

In other words, the effervescent hope that equity markets are "so cheap you simply have to buy now" hasn't come true. 

 

We're sticking with "expensive" Long Bonds.


Capital Brief: The Bachelor - Trump Edition ... & Clinton Heads To Atlantic City

Takeaway: Clinton Heads Down The Shore; Trump Bump; The Bachelor – Trump Edition;

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: The Bachelor - Trump Edition ... & Clinton Heads To Atlantic City - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”

-Jimmy Carter

CLINTON HEADS DOWN THE SHORE

Not to gamble, but rather to bash Donald Trump in Atlantic City, NJ – the home of Trump’s many bankrupt casinos. Clinton hammered Trump’s promise to do for the nation what he did for his businesses – cautioning that it should be viewed as a warning, not an enticement. Trump’s legacy in Atlantic City is a rough one and Clinton made a killing. It includes four rounds of bankruptcy for the casinos he built there, costing workers, lenders, stockholders and contractors jobs and money. The verbal shots keep flying at the expense of falling credibility ratings for both – just sit back and enjoy the show.

TRUMP BUMP

For those of you keeping count, Trump raised $51 million in the five weeks through the end of June, collecting $26 million for his campaign and $25 million for the Republican party. Think back to just a few weeks ago when he had less than $1.3 million in the bank. The bump comes as a sign that his lagging fundraising efforts are finally starting to gain traction and should show Republicans on the Hill that he’s taking this more seriously and just in time for his meetings with them today.

THE BACHELOR - TRUMP EDITION

Trump’s veepstakes has resembled a reality tv show as of late - he’s spent this week (it’s not even over yet!) with a different prospect each day. Senators Joni Ernst (IA) and Bob Corker (TN), Governor Mike Pence (IN), and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich have all split time with Trump as he traveled throughout the East Coast (we’re betting Governor Chris Christie is feeling a bit spurned right now). Although Corker and Ernst have all but withdrawn from consideration, we still expect the final rose ceremony – his veep selection announcement – to be sometime next week ahead of the convention.


REPLAY | Healthcare Investor Q&A with Tom Tobin

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides. 

 Hedgeye Healthcare analysts gave a special investor preview of their upcoming Healthcare Themes presentation. Viewers asked our team questions during live Q&A.

 

Veteran Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and analyst Andrew Freedman gave a special preview of their upcoming Healthcare Themes call today. Don’t miss the key investing callouts and trends in healthcare as well as changes to their Best Ideas list (Tickers include ATHN, ILMN, HOLX, AHS, ZBH, MD, MDRX). 


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