INVITE | EXPE Best Idea Long | Call Friday at 11am EDT

07/07/16 09:40AM EDT

The Hedgeye Internet & Media and Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure (GLL) teams will host a conference call tomorrow, June 7th at 11am EDT to present EXPE as a new Best Idea Long. 

KEY POINTS OF DISCUSSION

  1. IT’S LARGELY A COST STORY: EXPE’s effective EBITDA target is much lower than its stated guidance range after considering specific inorganic tailwinds.  EXPE could hit that target largely on the cost side alone through its strategy to cut redundant/duplicate costs, but it also has two big levers it can pull that could drive upside to its target; neither of which has received much attention.  In short, mgmt is largely in control here.
  2. PAY TO PLAY: The AWAY model transition presents a considerable near-term opportunity.  While there is some execution risk from pushback amongst AWAY’s current subs, we will detail why EXPE likely holds all the cards here.  Timing issue may curb the 2016 opportunity, but our analysis suggests that very small progress with the transition will go a long way toward proving out EXPE's EBITDA target and validating the bull-case narrative.  Once again, mgmt is largely in control here as well.
  3. THE END ISN’T NIGH: We suspect most outside of the sell-side are already bracing for softening travel trends.  Mgmt had already guided to decelerating room night growth through 2016 and cautioned of softening travel trends at a recent investor event, which was corroborated by the STR data that we’re all watching.  But there is another layer to the current travel trends that is going largely unnoticed.  Further, EXPE may currently be the OTA best positioned to weather any emerging global travel headwinds, which we will also discuss during our call.  

Attendance on this call is limited. Ping  for more information.

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