prev

A Look At How Central Planners Are Crushing Banks

A Look At How Central Planners Are Crushing Banks - Financials cartoon May 2016

 

Banks stocks around the world continue to crash today. No, it's not post-Brexit fallout. It's just another case of maniacal central planning gone awry. 

 

The latest news comes from Italy. Here's the wrap from the Wall Street Journal:

 

"In Italy, 17% of banks’ loans are sour. That is nearly 10 times the level in the U.S., where, even at the worst of the 2008-09 financial crisis, it was only 5%. Among publicly traded banks in the eurozone, Italian lenders account for nearly half of total bad loans."

 

Isn't it ironic that the European Commission authorized €150 billion in liquidity support for Italian banks last week? This measure will prove counterproductive as the ECB maintains its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). With no end in sight, Eurozone banks will continue to see a squeeze in their net interest margins. 

 

So, while financial media continues to frame Italian banks as the problem child of Europe, it's more appropriate to turn your attention to the ECB. To be clear, central bank policies have been ravaging Europe's banks for quite some time now. Since the ECB announced NIRP in June 2014, European bank stocks are down -48% versus -6.1% for Euro Stoxx 600. 

 

A Look At How Central Planners Are Crushing Banks - european banks

 

Same story in Japan...

 

The BoJ announced NIRP in January 2016. Since then, Japanese bank stocks are down -27.3% versus -12.3% for the Topix.

 

A Look At How Central Planners Are Crushing Banks - japan bank

 

Meanwhile in the U.S. 

 

Year-to-date, Financials (XLF) remain the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. The XLF is down -6.2% as the Fed has dialed back its rate hike rhetoric. The 10s/2s Treasury yield spread (a rate of change proxy for US growth and bank earnings via net interest margins) hit a cycle low today. (Incidentally, Financials remain our favorite 2016 sector short.)

 

As desperate central planners push interest rates ever lower, banks are apparently struggling to make a profit.

 

Who'd have thought?


McCullough: What Is Plunging 10-Year Yield Telling Investors?

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough takes a look at U.S. bond yields sinking to record lows and what may lie ahead.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


What The Mainstream Media Missed About All-Time Lows For 10-Year Yield

Takeaway: All-time lows in the 10-year Treasury yield is continued vindication for our Macro team's #GrowthSlowing call.

What The Mainstream Media Missed  About All-Time Lows For 10-Year Yield - bond yields 

 

All-time lows in 10-year Treasury yields this morning.

 

Yup. 

 

Yet more vindication of our Macro team's global #GrowthSlowing call.

 

Here's brief analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"While “stocks” have these 1-week ramps, you have to take on a lot of volatility to time those returns – with the Long Bond and it’s proxies, both absolute and volatility adjusted returns have been awesome. All-time low this am for the US 10yr of 1.38% ahead of the Friday jobs report and the Q2 Earnings Recession season."

 

 

Macro tourists and the mainstream media missed an important callout in reporting fresh lows for sovereign bond yields this morning...

 

The 10s/2s Treasury yield spread (a rate of change proxy for US growth and bank earnings) hit a new low for #TheCycle of 80bps today:

 

What The Mainstream Media Missed  About All-Time Lows For 10-Year Yield - yield spread 7 5

 

That's why our favorite macro call, long the Long Bond (TLT), continues to outperform:

 

What The Mainstream Media Missed  About All-Time Lows For 10-Year Yield - tlt v spy 7 5

 

In short, the bond market has figured out what still puzzles most stock-centric investors...

 

Global #GrowthSlowing continues to rule the day


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 7 5

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 7 5 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 7 5

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 7 5

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 7 5


Vive la France! (Well, Not So Much)

Takeaway: It's a big, stinky mess in France and the rest of Europe. It's not going to get better any time soon.

In case you missed it ... France officially joined the laundry list of crashing equity market casualties this morning.

 

Some brief analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"European stocks had their bear market bounce last wk (EuroStoxx600 +3.2% on the wk), but have given back a large % of those gains already this week and mostly remain in crash mode, with France’s CAC40 re-entering that risk zone at -1.7% this am (-20.5% from the 2015 Global Equity #Bubble high); Spain -2% to -32% from its 2015 cycle high."

 

Vive la France! (Well, Not So Much) - Stocks crash test dummies cartoon 02.18.2016

 

 To be clear, we don't believe the worst is over. Not only in France, but across Europe.


CHART OF THE DAY: The March To All-Time Lows In Sovereign Yields

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 

 

"... Whereas, both Long-term Sovereign Bonds and their equity market proxies did the following:

  1. US Treasury 10-year Yield dropped another -12 basis points on the week to 1.44% (down -83bps YTD)
  2. UK 10-year Yield crashed another -22 basis points on the week to 0.86% (down -110bps YTD)
  3. Germany’s 10yr Yield dropped back to negative, falling -8bps on the week to -0.13% (down -76bps YTD)
  4. Japan’s 10yr Yield fell another -8 basis points on the week to -0.25% (down -52bps YTD)
  5. Low Beta US Equities ramped another +3.7% on the week to +14.0% YTD
  6. High Yield US Equities added another +3.1% on the week to +7.4% YTD
  7. MSCI REITS Equity Index rose another +4.3% on the week to +11.5% YTD
  8. US listed Utilities (XLU) added another +3.7% on the week to +21.3% YTD

*for 5 and 6, that’s the mean performance of Top Quintile vs. Bottom Quintile SP500 Companies"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: The March To All-Time Lows In Sovereign Yields - 07.05.16 Chart


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

next