JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

06/30/16 07:40AM EDT

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

"Life is never easy. There is work to be done and obligations to be met— Obligations to truth, to justice, and to liberty.

                                                                                          -JFK

ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: Many unknowns remain ahead of the Republican convention in a few weeks - dozens of prominent Republicans have backed out, speakers are not yet confirmed, corporate sponsors have withdrawn support, and rumors of rebellion (and even riots) continue to rise. Convention organizers have unveiled a sparkly new stage and a massive LED big screen so that no one will miss a thing, but there’s growing concern that the convention will lack a coherent approach to substance and policy. Donald Trump will need to make a major shift to beef up his convention strategy and policy platform if he wants to move forward with any type of momentum and close the gap with Clinton.  

PROMESA KEPT:  A rare win last night for Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell who prevailed with the White House over the objections of hardliners in both parties as the Senate passed the Puerto Rico debt restructuring bill aka PROMESA on a vote of 68-30. Ultimately, the bill is not a bailout - and the island may still default on their biggest payment to date. The bill does, however, provide the ability to cut some debt, but more importantly, it places a hold on bondholder lawsuits that could jeopardize its ability to pay for schools, police officers and health care. Refloating the island will take some time, but the advancement of the bill is a step in the right direction.

AND PROMISES BROKEN: Just when we thought Trump was pivoting in the right direction for a few precious days, he unleashed a stream of invective against his former Republican primary rivals for not endorsing and supporting the party’s nominee as they all pledged to do back in 2015.  He even went as far as to say they should be permanently banned from running for office in the future. This is a surefire way to win them over...  

REPUBLICAN RESOURCES: Funds are starting to trickle in for Trump and endangered Republican candidates in the battleground states of OH, FL, PA, NV, and NH - all seeing a steady uptick in ad buys. The NRA has pledged more than $2 million on an ad featuring a Benghazi survivor urging people to support Trump - in the wake of the somewhat listless Benghazi report and the latest battle over guns - giving Trump a conservative boost. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super-PAC that works with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has also set aside nearly $40 million for ad buys aimed at the five contested Senate races in the fall.

WARRIOR OF WALL STREET: MA Senator Elizabeth Warren continues to throw shade at Wall Street, rolling out a fresh derivatives regulation bill with VA Senator Mark Warner in a progressive response to Republican’s recent Dodd-Frank reform plans. The bill strengthen derivatives oversight by directing the CFTC to collect user fees from financial firms to cover its budget and help the commission manage its rigorous Dodd-Frank oversight responsibilities. Though the bill won’t see the light of day in this Congress, Warren’s message is clear - she’s going to continue to be a burr under Wall Street’s saddle.

CAMPAIGNER-IN-CHIEF: With growing concerns that Donald Trump will be competitive this fall, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats have decided to pull out the big guns. President Obama is making plans to hit the campaign trail, touting Hillary Clinton’s experience as a Senator and Secretary of State while berating Donald Trump as a fake and a fraudster. Don’t assume that's his main message - he wants the conversations centered on Clinton, why she’s right for the job, and what she will do to complete their party’s missions. Look for Obama to be the one to channel Clinton’s inner enthusiasm when the Democrats kick of their convention next month.



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