JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

06/23/16 07:33AM EDT

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

“He serves his party best who serves the country best.”

                                           – Rutherford B. Hayes

 

DONALD, THE DISCIPLINED: Donald Trump is pressing the reset button with the intention of setting a new tone for his campaign. In his first rebuttal speech to Hillary Clinton’s assault, Trump sharply hit Clinton with distinct blows – labeling her a status-quo candidate and sacking the Clinton Foundation, but also spent time emphasizing his path forward while looking composed, softening his tone, and showing early signs of change…for the most part. There’s no assurance that this disciplined approach will last and we’ve all seen it before - although he did refrain from six scheduled interviews to avoid drowning out his message. But if he’s looking for a lasting way to right the ship, he’ll need to prove that this maneuver will last more than one day to major donors, elected party leaders across the country and the RNC and repair previous ruptures. The move comes in the nick of time as efforts by anti-Trump factions to disrupt the convention are picking up steam.

CAN CLINTON COMPETE COUNTRYWIDE?: To compete in all 50 states, Clinton will need all the help she can get – cue: meeting with House Dems. Her theme was simple - unity. Clinton emphasized the importance of her efforts to unify Democrats in ‘08 following her primary battle and loss to then-Senator Barack Obama, even though her supporters urged her to continue in opposition. Clinton and the Democrats are nowhere close to the circling firing squad the Republicans are facing with Donald Trump, but she still must arduously work to pursue Sanders’ progressive wing of the party. While Sanders had only a fraction of Clinton's support among House Democrats, party leaders are well aware that they will all need Sanders’ supporters come November.

 

RUBIO REDUX: FL Senator Marco Rubio has finally decided to throw his hat back into the ring, pitching himself as the key to keeping either Clinton or Trump in check by staying in his seat. Rubio views himself as one of the few people who can effectively deal with and stand up to Trump, as well as someone who can coach his fellow colleagues along the way. This is not going to be a cakewalk for Rubio - so expect an extraordinary amount of attention, money and advertising to go into FL as it’s both a lynchpin for holding onto the Senate and recapturing the White House.

SANDERS SUPPORTERS STILL SEARCHING: While Bernie Sanders vowed to help Clinton defeat Trump in November, he has yet to endorse her - and more importantly - his supporters are still waiting on the sidelines. There is still a lingering distrust of Clinton among the Sanders crowd, viewing her as too establishment-friendly, hawkish, and concluding that she is beholden to too many special interests. Clinton’s scant support among Sanders voters still has the opportunity for growth, but don’t expect it to be easy - many supporters still claim they could never support her - and a whopping 22% of them say they’ll support Trump according to Bloomberg.

RYAN’S RED PEN: House Republicans continued on their reform path, releasing their long-anticipated Obamacare replacement plan and sparking another round of fighting over healthcare policy. The plan repeals Obamacare and includes a range of standard Republican policy ideas, such as providing a tax credit to help people afford coverage making Medicare more market-based, and a cap on Medicaid payments and tax deductions for employer based plans. However, the plan has come under criticism as it lacks vital details needed for understanding its effect on coverage and the overall budget, including dollar figures for the tax credit. Speaker Paul Ryan, who spearheads the push for simpler and smaller government, defended the plan by insisting that it is a process and that further details will come to play in production.

 

ZERO HOUR FOR BREXIT: The day is upon us and we’ll  soon know the fate of the U.K.’s membership in the EU. With yesterday’s poll-of-polls showing a dead heat, both camps have redoubled their efforts to sway the U.K.’s 46.5 million registered voters — a record high — as the late momentum shift toward “Leave” appears to have stalled. Today’s vote will shape the future of Europe, pitching nationalist populism against political union and economic interests. Governments and financial institutions are bracing for the potential ramifications of a Brexit, though markets appear cautiously optimistic that “Remain” will prevail.

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