“Status quo, you know, is Latin for 'the mess we're in'.”
― Ronald Reagan
MONEY AIN’T A THANG: Really - it’s not an issue for Donald Trump, but despite claims that he’s worth over $10 billion, the same can’t be said for his campaign. His war chest – if you’d even call it that - currently holds only $1.3 million. That’s about the size of a congressional campaign. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has outraised him by a long shot, boasting $42 million in cash, and climbing at an even faster rate than the primary, putting the Republican front-runner on ice with less than five months to go. Recent FEC filings also show that Trump’s campaign has rented his own venues, jets, and hotels, and that Trump continues to loan the campaign money – bringing the total amount of Trump loans to $45.7 million. If Republican pockets aren’t deep enough, Trump promises that he will personally fund his own campaign...
GENERAL ELECTION GROUND GAME: Clinton now holds early leads in four key swing states - FL, VA, MI, WI – further underscoring our point that having an organization really does pay off. If Trump wants to stay in it, he’s going to need boots on the ground – and fast. His campaign currently employs only 69 staffers, while Clinton woefully outnumbers him with 685. Trump boasts that he runs a lean, tight-knit campaign, but that won’t cut it. In states like battleground NC, Clinton employs around 100 staffers, while Trump counts 10. Though, with the race looking tighter in PA and OH, Trump has an opportunity to be competitive in two of the most critical states this fall.
FAR WORSE THAN FUNDRAISING: When all is said and done, it’s not the money, organization, or events that people remember – it’s the message. “Make America Great Again” was a sturdy slogan during primary campaign – something supporters could hang their hats on - but now, that message appears to be muddled. Though Trump held campaign rallies last week in five states run by Republican Governors (four were potential battleground states - AZ, NV, GA, NC) - not one of them appeared on stage with him. If that doesn’t sound the alarm, then what does?
CLINTON’S CLAIMS: Clinton cautioned voters of a “Trump recession” in a speech on the U.S. economy, implying that electing Trump, “the king of debt,” would send the economy into a tailspin. In a speech outlining what won’t make America great again, Clinton feels that she’ll be the one to unite the nation, moving the U.S. economy into prosperous times like never before. She’s taking her message to Capitol Hill today to strategize with House Democrats, while Trump is expected to counterpunch in a speech to badly-needed donors this afternoon.
SANDERS STILL STEAMING: The fire under Bernie Sanders’ campaign might have gone out, but he’s got quite the large amount of steam leftover. His mission – reform the Democratic platform. He’s recently recruited a number of Democratic senators to support the reform of the superdelegate system, a framework knocked even by Trump as undemocratic and elitist. The continued push by Sanders and his cohorts, combined with Clinton’s interest in winning over his supporters, is likely to push the issue onto the agenda in Philadelphia.
ELECTION PREVIEW WITH SCOTT REED: We spoke with Washington insider Scott Reed on the upcoming presidential election, the lay of the land for Senate and House races this fall, and the overall effort businesses play in campaigns and politics. Reed highlighted the importance of Trump getting his message back on track after releasing his top campaign manager, while betting his fate on three factors: VP pick, the convention, and the first debate. Reed also keyed in on Senate elections – predicting Republicans retain the Senate with wins in OH, PA, NH, NV, and FL, but dropping seats in WI and IL. A replay of the call can be found here.
#BELIEFSYSTEM BREAKDOWN: One of our top three 2Q16 macro themes warned of a breakdown in the central banking #BeliefSystem. In other words, investor faith that the Fed and global central banks can “save the day” is faltering. Every day now we hear about Fed “credibility problems.” Indeed, Janet Yellen was peppered by Congressmen with questions yesterday about the Fed’s faulty forecasting. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed head James Bullard made headlines last week saying that the Fed was “backing off the idea that we have dogmatic certainty about where the U.S. economy is headed in the medium and longer run.” That’s a big deal. All of this, while the industrial recession continues, corporate profits continue to go negative, employment growth slows and global economy stalls. We continue to reiterate that the biggest risk to investors is believing in the Fed’s rosy economic forecast. The belief system is breaking down.
WHY IPAB WON’T GET TRIGGERED TOMORROW (& IT WON’T MATTER IF IT IS): Our Healthcare Policy Advisor Emily Evans shared her insight on why the Medicare Trustees report probably won't trigger IPAB and the action for Medicare cost reduction at CMMI will happen anyway. You can read her piece here.
5G WIRELESS RULES ON FCC JULY AGENDA: Our Telecommunications-Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur shared his insight on how the FCC's 5G rules could boost wireless ecosystem leaders like VZ and CCI. You can read his piece here.
