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CHART OF THE DAY: This Economic Indicator Has Been Negative For 9 Straight Months

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... I have been very serious about #GrowthSlowing for almost a year now. And guess what? It continues to slow.

 

After I saw yesterday’s recessionary US Industrial Production report for May of -1.4% year-over-year, being long stocks into the Fed going dovish (again), I knew I was getting too cute. So I sold into strength. I don’t like playing from a position of weakness."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: This Economic Indicator Has Been Negative For 9 Straight Months - 06.16.16 chart


Cartoon of the Day: For The Birds...

Cartoon of the Day: For The Birds... - Fed birdbrain cartoon 06.15.2015

 

"Fed 'data dependence' or absolute mediocrity in forecasting?" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote following today's FOMC statement. "The Fed was hawkish in December, dovish in March and April, hawkish in May and now dovish again in June."


McCullough: My Response To Today’s Fed Statement

 

In this special HedgeyeTV presentation, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why “the Fed is not trying to protect the American people and their cost of living. It wants to keep the financial market bubbles that they created intact.”


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Credit Cycle: The Beginning Of The End?

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner joins CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the #CreditCycle is just beginning to wreak havoc on financial markets. Steiner cites the recent blowup in Synchrony Financial (SYF) as a prime example.


Capital Brief: Trump Takes Back Capitol Hill... & Can Democrats Take The House?

Takeaway: Trump Takes Back To Capitol Hill; Ryan's Round Three; Majority Momentum?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Trump Takes Back Capitol Hill... & Can Democrats Take The House? - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

TRUMP TAKeS BACK CAPITOL HILL

Donald Trump is heading back to Capitol Hill ahead of the July convention to address the entire Republican House after his May visit with leadership came under criticism from rank and file members. Trump will have an opportunity to discuss his priorities and share his vision for moving the party forward.

 

House Republicans are unveiling their “ A Better Way” agenda to show how they would govern should they win back the White House – they’re desperately hoping Trump takes the cue and runs on their issues - we think he has other plans.

RYAN’S ROUND THREE

Speaker Paul D. Ryan announced the third part of his six-point plan with a focus on regulatory overhaul -  scaling back Dodd-Frank, expanding energy production on federal lands and limiting lawsuits against businesses. Ryan’s laser focus on policy has helped define and forge the Republican agenda ahead of the upcoming Senate and House races. If Republicans want to stay in control of Congress - and take back the White House - they’ll need to run on ideas and draw a distinction with the Democrats and the top of their own ticket.

MAJORITY MOMENTUM?

Democrats feel they have a good shot at taking the White House and Senate this year, but what about the House? Democrats are 59 seats out of the majority - and until last night (Randy Forbes of VA was tossed) - no incumbent House Republican had lost a race.

 

Given turnout in last week’s presidential primary, CA Republicans, like Rep. Darrell Issa and Rep. Steve Knight, will have big bullseyes on their backs this fall - both candidates narrowly skated by in their primaries. Guilt by association will become the main drag on Republicans with Trump as the presumptive nominee - and the Democrats will remind voters of that every step of the way.


The Industrial Recession Continues

Takeaway: Apparently Industrial Production growth and/or demand has not "bottomed."

The Industrial Recession Continues - The Cycle cartoon 05.12.2016

 

Stabilization in a recession? Maybe

 

(Sustainable) Positive inflection in the Industrial Sector? Nope

 

Being long US Equity Beta now (for a trade), I basically have to hope for the only real catalyst for stocks – a more dovish (Down Dollar) Fed.

1. Industrial Production

 

Down -0.4% m/m and accelerates to the downside to -1.4% y/y = 9 consecutive months of negative y/y growth.  Deceleration across all major sub-aggregates. 

 

The Industrial Recession Continues - industrial production 6 15

2. Capacity Utilization

 

Down, Again.  Declining -30bps sequentially and -1.7% y/y = 15 consecutive months of negative y/y growth

 

The Industrial Recession Continues - industrial production 6 15 2

 

I guess Industrial Production growth and/or demand has not "bottomed." 


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