The Industrial Recession Continues

Takeaway: Apparently Industrial Production growth and/or demand has not "bottomed."

The Industrial Recession Continues - The Cycle cartoon 05.12.2016

Stabilization in a recession? Maybe

(Sustainable) Positive inflection in the Industrial Sector? Nope

Being long US Equity Beta now (for a trade), I basically have to hope for the only real catalyst for stocks – a more dovish (Down Dollar) Fed.

1. Industrial Production

 

Down -0.4% m/m and accelerates to the downside to -1.4% y/y = 9 consecutive months of negative y/y growth.  Deceleration across all major sub-aggregates. 

The Industrial Recession Continues - industrial production 6 15

2. Capacity Utilization

 

Down, Again.  Declining -30bps sequentially and -1.7% y/y = 15 consecutive months of negative y/y growth

 

The Industrial Recession Continues - industrial production 6 15 2

I guess Industrial Production growth and/or demand has not "bottomed."