A Quick Look At The Brexit Bounce

Takeaway: European equities popped following U.K. Finance minister George Osborne's Brexit assessment. The FTSE is still down -11% from its 2015 high.

A Quick Look At The Brexit Bounce - Brexit cartoon 06.07.2016 

 

Ah, the Brexit Bounce...

 

European equities popped this morning following U.K. Finance minister George Osborne's warning shot to Brexit voters. Osborne suggested that a "Leave" vote would force the U.K. to raise taxes and enact spending cuts worth 30 billion pounds ($43 billion) and proposed measures to fill an economic "black hole" from lower trade, investment, and tax receipts.

 

Essentially markets bet that Osborne's dire predictions raised the likelihood of a "stay" vote. Here's analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning: 

 

"Big bear market slash Brexit bounce this morning as Osborne threatens tax hikes – levels matter here as yesterday was a big immediate-term oversold signal in almost every major European index. The FTSE is up +1.1% to 5,986 and would need to recapture 6,305 to not be bearish TREND however."

 

 

Take a look at the most recent Brexit tracker (an aggregation of various polls) via Bloomberg. At this point, polls are showing a coin flip vote:

 

Click image to enlarge. 

A Quick Look At The Brexit Bounce - brexit tracker 6 15

 

By way of contrast, we've laid out why we think there are Political, Financial, and Behavioral reasons why the balance is tipped toward a "Stay" vote on June 23, in "An Update On Brexit: Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now."

 

**In case you missed it, here's a good wrap of Osborne's proposed emergency public spending cuts and tax increases from the BBC and the opposition party's pushback.


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