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Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

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Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - equity markets 6 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 6 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 6 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 6 15

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - currencies 6 15


CHART OF THE DAY: Dear US Equity Beta Chasers, Here Are 3 Catalysts To Risk Manage

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... That’s right muddlers – there has been a ton of alpha out there to be had. So let’s get with the program and do what we’re paid to do and get the next move right from here. For US Equity Beta chasers, I think the next move is Up, then Down. Potential catalysts:

 

  1. The Fed (going back to dovish today with Late Cycle #EmploymentSlowing)
  2. Brexit (if they don’t exit)
  3. Mean reversion and performance chasing"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Dear US Equity Beta Chasers, Here Are 3 Catalysts To Risk Manage - 06.15.16 EL Chart


Drake: Keep An Eye On (Decelerating) Income Growth

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake explains why income growth continues to slow and what it means for the U.S. economy.


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Cartoon of the Day: An Update On Global Bond Yields

Cartoon of the Day: An Update On Global Bond Yields - Yield cartoon 06.14.2016

 

The yield on the 10-year German Bund hit an all-time low today falling into negative territory for the first time ever. Global sovereign bond yields continue to make new lows as #GrowthSlowing fears persist.


Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector?

Takeaway: The agricultural economy hasn't bottomed and farmers are struggling to keep up with mounting debt.

Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector? - farm storm

 

Is the agricultural economy troughing?

 

The answer is no.

 

As Hedgeye Commodities analyst Ben Ryan points out, the trends in the farm credit cycle are disconcerting to say the least. Below are four charts and brief analysis from Ryan as a follow-up to "Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector." (You can follow him on Twitter @Hedgeye_Comdty.)

 

As you may have guessed, all is not well on the farm.

#1

 

"According to the Kansas City Fed, more than 30% of financial institutions reported increasing collateral requirements for farmers in Q1."

 

Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector? - kc fed 1

#2

 

"Bankers noted greater than 18% of loans made to farmers in Q1 involved restructuring existing debt to meet short-term liquidity needs."

 

Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector? - kc fed 2

#3

 

"In Q1, farm real estate accounted for 22% of collateral on non-real estate loans greater than $250K, up from 13% two years ago."

 

Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector? - kc fed 3

#4

 

"So according to Farmer Mac, every single Ag. related commodity is 'low.' I'd be begging for bottom too."

 

Credit Drought (Part 2): Trouble Ahead For The Ag Sector? - kc fed 4

Need more?

 

Here's a key takeaway from a recent Bloomberg story:

 

"The USDA has forecast farmer income will drop to $54.8 billion this year, the third straight decline and less than half of the record profit earned in 2013. The ratio of debt to income has more than doubled in three years to 6.8 percent, the highest since 1984, when the Midwest was mired in a farm crisis that saw the highest foreclosure rates since the Great Depression."

 


Capital Brief: Trump's Donor Deficiency... & What's On Bernie's Wish List

Takeaway: Sanders and Clinton Set to Sit Down; Contrasts in Circumspection; Donald's Donor Deficiency

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Trump's Donor Deficiency... & What's On Bernie's Wish List - capital brief

SANDERS CLINTON CONFAB

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are set to sit down and discuss Sander’s policy wish list, his campaign, and the upcoming convention in July. Sanders has yet to suspend his campaign and up to this point felt that the longer he holds out, the more leverage he has to push Clinton and the Democrats in his direction, but he’s getting perilously closer to overstaying his welcome.

 

Look for Sanders to push his mainstay ideas like wage inequality, free healthcare and free college tuition, and Wall Street reform, while Clinton looks to press for issues she hopes will end up unifying the party - like climate change, immigration, and foreign policy. With Donald Trump threatening to ban ethnic groups and cancel the Paris climate deal, look for Sanders and Clinton to rally and unite the party with their eye on the November prize being more than just the White House.

CONTRASTS IN CIRCUMSPECTION

In times of turmoil, true leaders emerge and have stood to both console and rally our nation. The tragic massacre in Orlando comes as the first big test of the 2016 general election. Trump is using the situation to double down on his sentiment towards Muslims, immigration and went on to tweet an I-told-you-so statement, calling for President Obama to resign.

 

In contrast, Clinton canceled her first dual campaign appearance with Obama, delivering more somber remarks and outlining her goals to combat terrorism. Candidates will ultimately differentiate and further distance themselves from their opponent in their response to situations of this magnitude - expect this to prevail throughout the election.

DONALD'S DONOR DEFICIENCY

The Trump camp may have lost more sorely-needed donors after high profile patrons made no bones about shutting their wallets at Mitt Romney’s annual conference. Donors were vocal in their concern with Trump’s lack of discipline and his demagoguery.

 

The summit, which brings together Romney’s extensive network of wealthy contributors, further serves as a reminder of the hurdles Trump faces in corralling the monied crowd. If he’s unable to mend the wounds, look for these dollars to go elsewhere – we hear Gary Johnson is looking for help.


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