The yield on the 10-year German Bund hit an all-time low today falling into negative territory for the first time ever. Global sovereign bond yields continue to make new lows as #GrowthSlowing fears persist.
Takeaway: The agricultural economy hasn't bottomed and farmers are struggling to keep up with mounting debt.
The answer is no.
As Hedgeye Commodities analyst Ben Ryan points out, the trends in the farm credit cycle are disconcerting to say the least. Below are four charts and brief analysis from Ryan as a follow-up to "Credit Drought: A Weary Road Ahead For The Ag Sector." (You can follow him on Twitter @Hedgeye_Comdty.)
As you may have guessed, all is not well on the farm.
"According to the Kansas City Fed, more than 30% of financial institutions reported increasing collateral requirements for farmers in Q1."
"Bankers noted greater than 18% of loans made to farmers in Q1 involved restructuring existing debt to meet short-term liquidity needs."
"In Q1, farm real estate accounted for 22% of collateral on non-real estate loans greater than $250K, up from 13% two years ago."
"So according to Farmer Mac, every single Ag. related commodity is 'low.' I'd be begging for bottom too."
Here's a key takeaway from a recent Bloomberg story:
"The USDA has forecast farmer income will drop to $54.8 billion this year, the third straight decline and less than half of the record profit earned in 2013. The ratio of debt to income has more than doubled in three years to 6.8 percent, the highest since 1984, when the Midwest was mired in a farm crisis that saw the highest foreclosure rates since the Great Depression."
Takeaway: Sanders and Clinton Set to Sit Down; Contrasts in Circumspection; Donald's Donor Deficiency
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are set to sit down and discuss Sander’s policy wish list, his campaign, and the upcoming convention in July. Sanders has yet to suspend his campaign and up to this point felt that the longer he holds out, the more leverage he has to push Clinton and the Democrats in his direction, but he’s getting perilously closer to overstaying his welcome.
Look for Sanders to push his mainstay ideas like wage inequality, free healthcare and free college tuition, and Wall Street reform, while Clinton looks to press for issues she hopes will end up unifying the party - like climate change, immigration, and foreign policy. With Donald Trump threatening to ban ethnic groups and cancel the Paris climate deal, look for Sanders and Clinton to rally and unite the party with their eye on the November prize being more than just the White House.
In times of turmoil, true leaders emerge and have stood to both console and rally our nation. The tragic massacre in Orlando comes as the first big test of the 2016 general election. Trump is using the situation to double down on his sentiment towards Muslims, immigration and went on to tweet an I-told-you-so statement, calling for President Obama to resign.
In contrast, Clinton canceled her first dual campaign appearance with Obama, delivering more somber remarks and outlining her goals to combat terrorism. Candidates will ultimately differentiate and further distance themselves from their opponent in their response to situations of this magnitude - expect this to prevail throughout the election.
The Trump camp may have lost more sorely-needed donors after high profile patrons made no bones about shutting their wallets at Mitt Romney’s annual conference. Donors were vocal in their concern with Trump’s lack of discipline and his demagoguery.
The summit, which brings together Romney’s extensive network of wealthy contributors, further serves as a reminder of the hurdles Trump faces in corralling the monied crowd. If he’s unable to mend the wounds, look for these dollars to go elsewhere – we hear Gary Johnson is looking for help.
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Takeaway: The German 10yr Bund yield went negative and hit new all-time lows at -0.0047% on global #GrowthSlowing fears.
The 10yr German Bund yield went negative, hitting an all-time low, as investors flocked to sovereign bonds on global #GrowthSlowing fears. Take a look at the long-term chart of the yield on the German 10yr over the last 26 years.
A truly amazing rally.
The graphs below show the yield curves for select sovereign bonds today (green line) versus where they were at the beginning of the year (yellow line). As you can see, there's been a massive rally in long bonds around the world.
Click images to enlarge.
Takeaway: Our Restaurants analyst Howard Penney remains bearish on Chipotle. He sees an additional 35% downside.
In case you missed it, Hedgeye's Howard Penney captured the essence of the bearish case on Chipotle (CMG) in a recent New York Post article.
Since the E. coli outbreak was announced, Chipotle shareholders have taken a significant hit. The stock is down -34% since Penney added it as a Best Idea Short on 11/16/15 ... and over -18% year-to-date.
Here's Penney's update from the NY Post story (with data provided via our survey partner CivicScience):
"By another measure, the number of diners who say they 'don’t like' Chipotle increased to 24 percent in the second quarter of 2016 — from 18 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to a Civicscience brand survey released on Monday.
'There’s going to be a permanent group of people who won’t go back,' said Hedgeye’s Howard Penney. 'And even after three years, when Chipotle may see some improvement, their competition will have improved by then, too. They may have had their run.'"
Bottom line? Be careful if you're betting on a bottom.
Takeaway: Next catalyst in the #Reflation vs. #Deflation debate? Fed head Janet Yellen will give an update on the FOMC's latest thinking on Wednesday.
That's the latest macro market read through, explaining why equity markets in Australia and Russia puked and the 10yr Treasury yield headed lower. In other words, it was a classic Dollar Up, Rates Down day.
Is the evolving trend #Deflation or #Reflation? That's the question of the month...
On an immediate-term trade basis, yesterday's selloff triggered oversold in a number of shorts in Real-Time Alerts. Here's additional insight via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier today:
"U.S. Treasury 10yr yield at 1.57%. Yep. Closing in on 2015 lows but rates are oversold ahead of Yellen’s 4th pivot (hawkish to dovish to hawkish to dovish) in 6 months as #EmploymentSlowing becomes obvious."
Take a look at a chart of the tumbling 10yr Treasury yield. (Note: At the start of 2016, the 10yr Treasury yield was 2.25%.)
Click to enlarge.
"Dollar Up, Rates Down – that is the #Deflation Risk On – and that’s a big reason for the oversold signal in Global Equities this morning – Reflation sensitive countries (Russia -3%, Australia -2%) and Reflation Risk sector exposures have corrected, hard, from our USD oversold (Energy Overbought) signal last week."
Next catalyst in the #Reflation vs. #Deflation debate? Fed head Janet Yellen will give an update on the FOMC's latest thinking on Wednesday...
It's perverse, but it's reality. The Fed's pivots from hawkish to dovish throughout the year have perpetuated either reflation or deflation.
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