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Stormy U.S. Economic Data

Takeaway: U.S. Consumer Confidence and Jobless Claims data paint an ugly economic picture.

Stormy U.S. Economic Data - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

 

"If you're bullish on a US economic recovery in 2H, I've got a couple of charts for you to be willfully ignorant of," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

 

Consumer Confidence

 

Stormy U.S. Economic Data - consumer confidence 6 13

 

Jobless Claims

 

Stormy U.S. Economic Data - jobless claims 6 13

 

...Not to mention May's U.S. jobs report, which just so happened to be the worst report in almost six years.

 

So, what do you do with that? 

 

Here's Darius:

Meanwhile ... our non-consensus call on long bonds (via TLT) continues to serve Hedgeye subscribers rather well too. It's up 12% YTD vs a 2.5% return for the S&P 500.


[Crash]: A Look At Global Stocks

Takeaway: "The Old Wall will blame Brexit, but stocks in London are only -0.39% - blame #GrowthSlowing."

[Crash]: A Look At Global Stocks - World Market No 12.16.14 large

 

Global Equity markets are getting crushed this morning.

 

  1. Japan, Nikkei (-3.5%)
  2. China, Shanghai Comp (-3.2%)
  3. Germany, DAX (-1.3%)
  4. Italy, FTSE MIB (-2.3%)

 

The common refrain cited by mainstream media this morning is Brexit risk ... but that's a mirage. "The Old Wall will blame Brexit, but stocks in London are only -0.39% - blame #GrowthSlowing," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote this morning.

 

Here's more analysis from McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning:

 

"... Not that this would matter, but Japan, China, Germany, Italy, etc. are all in crash mode from 2015 cycle highs – Nikkei hammered -3.5% last night (-23% from July 2015); Shanghai -3.2% overnight (-45% y/y); Italy -2.4% (-30% from July 2015) #GrowthSlowing."

 

Take a look at Japan...

 

 

... And China

 

 

Meanwhile, over in Europe...

 

Italian equities lead the losers:

 

 

 

... German equities are still crashing:

 

 

While global equity markets get eviserated, our favorite Macro positions like Long Bonds (TLT) and Gold (GLD) are winning. McCullough continues:

 

"Our call for an all-time low this year in the UST 10yr is playing out and the Long Bond remains our Best (Long) Macro Idea – 1.62% 10yr in the USA, taking it to -65bps YTD; Germany 10yr testing negative at 0.01%, Swiss 10s new lows at -0.51%."

 

 

 

ARE YOU LONG #GROWTHSLOWING?


Daily Market Data Dump: Monday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - equity markets 6 13

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - sector performance 6 13

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - volume 6 13

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - rates and spreads 6 13

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Monday - currencies 6 13


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CHART OF THE DAY: What's Winning (& Losing) As U.S. Growth Slows

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... If you’re long things that are crushing it when growth slows (and bond yields fall), congrats:

 

  1. Utilities (XLU) added another +1.0% absolute return last week taking them to +16.8% YTD
  2. Gold rose another +2.8% last week to +20.2% YTD

 

On the other side of that, classic #LateCycle consumption Sector Styles in the USA lagged:

 

  1. Financials (XLF) lost another -1.5% on the week to -2.8% YTD
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell back into the red last week, closing -0.8% to -0.8% YTD"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: What's Winning (& Losing) As U.S. Growth Slows - 06.13.16 Chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. Airbnb Is an Existential Threat to the Hotel Industry (6/11/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan explains why Airbnb is a significant threat to the hotel industry.

 

2. This Is One of the Top-3 Stock Market Bubbles in History (6/10/2016)

 

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Demographics Sector Head Neil Howe discuss why “the stock market is one gigantic emotional rollercoaster” perched perilously at its peak. 

 

3. The Bullish Case for Life Insurance | Q&A with Neil Howe (6/9/2016)

 

 

Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe held a live Q&A on Thursday June 9 in which he discussed why life insurance company shares have been beaten down since the Great Recession, and makes the case for their comeback.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

Click here to access the associated slides.

 

4. Benn Steil: Donald Trump Is a Clear and Present Market Danger (6/8/2016)

 

 

Would a Trump presidency be bad news for the global economy and markets? Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods" thinks so. He discusses the disconcerting and adverse consequences a Trump presidency may have with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

 

5. Drake: Contextualizing the Biggest Deceleration in Credit Growth Since 2010 (6/7/2016)

 

 

In this brief discussion, Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake analyzes the trend in consumer credit growth, which has been supporting consumption in the face of slowing income growth.

 

6. Yikes: Yellen’s Favorite Market Indicator Hits 7-Year Low (6/6/2016)

 

 

Hedgeye U.S. macro analyst Christian Drake takes a look at the “Labor Market Conditions Index” which just posted its 5th consecutive month of negative reading (worse since 2009) and what it portends for Fed policy.

 

7. McCullough: The Most Asymmetric US Corporate Profit Risk (Ever) (6/6/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reviews the “Fantasy Island” earnings risk blinding many investors and why second and third quarter earnings for most sectors will be “awful.”


Airbnb Is an Existential Threat to the Hotel Industry

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan explains why Airbnb is a significant threat to the hotel industry and its potential for a big IPO.


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