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Got #GrowthSlowing? European Equities Hammered

Takeaway: We again reiterate our call for slowing growth in the Eurozone beginning in Q2.

Got #GrowthSlowing? European Equities Hammered - growth cartoon 10.08.2014

 

Below is analysis from our Macro team in a note sent to subscribers earlier today:

 

"Got #GrowthSlowing? We again reiterate our call for slowing growth in the Eurozone beginning in Q2 and today got classic "late to the party" confirmation from the German economy ministry who said the country’s economy had a decent start to the Q2 but its growth pace is likely to slow during the course of the April-June period."

 

The 1yr drawdowns in European equities are unequivocally terrible:

 

Got #GrowthSlowing? European Equities Hammered - european equities 6 10

 

This isn't a trend exclusive to Europe:

 

"No matter what side of the reflation/deflation trade you’re on, the growth in global demand continues to decelerate on a trending basis. Only 35% of country and regional PMI figures across manufacturing, services and composite readings are both expanding (i.e. > 50) and accelerating sequentially as of last month. The rest are either expanding but decelerating or in outright contraction (i.e. < 50).

 

With continued evidence of economic contraction, we’re confident stick with growth-slowing allocations (TLT, XLU) while waiting and watching on deflation/reflation exposure."

 

Here's the S&P sector scorecard:

 

Got #GrowthSlowing? European Equities Hammered - sector performance 6 10


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 6 10

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 6 10

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 6 10

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 6 10

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 6 10


CHART OF THE DAY: Yellen's Favorite Indicator Prints Worst Reading Since 2009

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more. 

 

"... Janet’s favored dashboard labor Indicator, The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) dropped to an index reading of -4.8 in May, marking a 5th consecutive month of decline, a 7th straight months of deteriorating conditions and the worst reading since 2009."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Yellen's Favorite Indicator Prints Worst Reading Since 2009 - 06.10.16 EL


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Cartoon of the Day: Drinking The Kool-Aid?

Cartoon of the Day: Drinking The Kool-Aid? - central bank kool aid 06.09.2016

 

Did you drink the central planning Kool-Aid?


Capital Brief: Clinton's Courtship... & Trump's Worst Week Ever

Takeaway: Clinton's Courtship; Self-Inflicted Wounds; Extinguishing The Flame;

Capital Brief: Clinton's Courtship... & Trump's Worst Week Ever - capital brief

 

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

CLINTON’S COURTSHIP

Capital Brief: Clinton's Courtship... & Trump's Worst Week Ever - clinton sanders

 

The rivalry between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders moves into a new phase where Clinton hopes to soothe tensions and move the party towards unification and eventually instill enthusiasm among Sanders’ loyalists. It won’t be completely one-sided and no candidate will get their own way – and she’ll likely have to concede more ground on trade, financial services, as well as labor issues.

 

If Clinton wants to get a head start on beating Donald Trump in the fall, she and Democratic party chieftains need appeal to him and his most fervent followers who toil outside the traditional boundaries of the Democratic party. As we’ve noted before, look for Senator Elizabeth Warren to play a central role in brokering a deal in the coming days.

SELF-INFLICTED WOUNDS

Capital Brief: Clinton's Courtship... & Trump's Worst Week Ever - trump sad

 

Bad week for Trump and the timing couldn’t be worse. Party leaders are admonishing him to avoid controversy and focus on policy issues - and fast. With the Democrats uniting - and with five months to go to election day - they fear that they’ll be dragged down with him if he doesn’t pivot away from his sideshows and focus on what Americans care about.

EXTINGUISHING THE FLAME

Sanders hasn’t sacked his campaign, but he is sure to shortly. With DC being the only remaining primary and Clinton’s grip on the nomination all but assured, his campaign has begun laying off staff as a large majority of superdelegates are expected to go public with a Clinton endorsement.

 

Sanders will meet with President Obama this morning and Minority Leader Harry Reid later in the day -who along with Warren will work to convince Sanders to exit gracefully. Sanders says he’ll remain in the race until next week’s DC primary – but the reality of flipping over 400 superdelegates is starting to sink in...


The NIRP Effect: How Central Planners Are Pancaking Global Bond Yields

Takeaway: A look at the pancaking of yield curves around the globe.

The NIRP Effect: How Central Planners Are Pancaking Global Bond Yields - bond yields

 

Below are sovereign bond yields for select countries with negative interest rate policies. The graphs show the yield curves for those sovereign bonds today (green line) versus where they were last year (yellow line).  

 

German 10yr:

 

6/9/15: 0.949% 

Today: 0.037%

 

Click images to enlarge.

The NIRP Effect: How Central Planners Are Pancaking Global Bond Yields - german yield curve

 

Japanese 10yr:

 

6/9/15: 0.448%

Today: -0.131%

 

The NIRP Effect: How Central Planners Are Pancaking Global Bond Yields - japan yield curve

 

Swiss 10yr:

 

6/9/15: 0.211%

Today: -0.48%

 

The NIRP Effect: How Central Planners Are Pancaking Global Bond Yields - switzerland yield curve

 

How This Whole thing Shakes Out is anyone's guess.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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