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CHART OF THE DAY: When US Corporate Profit Growth Is Negative S&P 500 Does This...

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you know, 100% of the time that US corporate profits slow to negative (year-over-year), the SP500 has had a draw-down (crash) of 20% or more. We’re about to see the 3rd consecutive quarter of a US #ProfitRecession. And Q3 of 2016 will probably be the 4th."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: When US Corporate Profit Growth Is Negative S&P 500 Does This... - 06.09.16 EL Chart


About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe: The Bullish Case for Life Insurance

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe discusses why life insurance company shares have been beaten down since the Great Recession, but makes the case for their comeback. "Looking forward, there are a lot of positive trends at play. Gen Xers are waking up late to save for retirement, while risk-averse Millennials are trying to prepare early, promising to drive demand steadily upward for decades to come," Howe writes.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

Click here to access the associated slides.


Cartoon of the Day: Squirrelly

Cartoon of the Day: Squirrelly - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

 

This one speaks for itself.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Capital Brief: What Clinton's California Win Means For The Democratic Party

Takeaway: Golden State Warrior, Bernie Weakened; A Better Way

Capital Brief: What Clinton's California Win Means For The Democratic Party - capital brief

 

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIOR

Capital Brief: What Clinton's California Win Means For The Democratic Party - hillary lates

 

With wins in CA, NJ, SD and NM last night, Hillary Clinton has now fully assumed the mantle of presumptive Democratic nominee. She has been victorious in a majority of the primaries, garnered three million more votes than her opponents, has 2,497 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders’ 1,663, and has 571 superdelegates to Sanders’ 48. The party will now begin to unify around her with a popular president by her side as she moves into the next phase of her campaign. She and her allies will continue to define and dismantle Donald Trump and his policies.

 

Priorities USA, a pro-Clinton super PAC, has allocated $20 million for an ad buy against Trump – building on her effective foreign policy speech last week pegging him as unfit to be president. Clinton will also need to reassess her trust and likeability factors – repairing and retooling her image will be critical - it will become her advantage when voters decide the “lesser of two evils.”

WEAKENED AT BERNIE’S

 

Bernie Sanders is all but out of the race – but that doesn’t mean he’s dropping out...In order to be viable for the nomination at this juncture - Sanders’ only option is to flip superdelegates – something that remains completely unrealistic (he’s flipped one in six months). He and some in his inner circle have been hard-pressed to accept his fate, but nonetheless he says he will not relent until the convention. With Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement of Clinton and President Obama’s expected soon, Sanders risks becoming a pariah in his party the longer he holds out.

“A BETTER WAY”

Speaker Ryan rolled out a wide-ranging conservative agenda just a few weeks ahead of the Republican convention in July. The product of several task forces and dozens of meetings with House members outlines conservative proposals for jobs and the economy, taxes, health care, national security, constitutional authority, and poverty. The plan is a byproduct  of the autopsy of the failed 2012 Romney campaign as well as Ryan’s vision for an optimistic agenda for his Congressional colleagues and the party writ large. Ultimately, in the face of Trump terrorizing the party – the proposal gives Republicans a platform to run on in the fall, trying to put the Republican party back on track.


Remember Our Healthcare Team's #ACATaper Call? It's Happening.

Takeaway: Healthcare job openings posted the slowest growth rate in 7 quarters and provided confirmation of our Healthcare team's #ACATaper theme.

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt from an institutional research note written by Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman on healthcare employment. Why is this important? As our analyst Tom Tobin wrote in an article that appeared on Investopedia earlier this year:

 

"The Affordable Care Act created legions of newly-minted medical consumers which benefited the bottom line of the companies that cared for them... [in other words] ACA has created a year-over-year comparison so enormous that healthcare stocks will probably unwind rather violently."

Our healthcare team calls the coming "unwind" the #ACATaperHealthcare job openings are essentially a proxy for this massive pull forward of demand. That's why today's slowing JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) was so critical.

 

Remember Our Healthcare Team's #ACATaper Call? It's Happening. - healthcare pills

 

Of the thousands of macro and fundamental data series we track on a daily basis, Healthcare Job Openings (JOLTS), proves to have the most consistent and reliable relationship to utilization trends in the industry.

 

Despite a slight sequential uptick in the absolute number of Healthcare Job Openings (1,015 April / 957 March), on a trending basis, growth was the slowest in 7 quarters with the 3-month YoY growth rate at +12.2%.  

 

Remember Our Healthcare Team's #ACATaper Call? It's Happening. - HC Jolts 6 8

 

Why does that matter?

 

JOLTS as a percentage of Healthcare Employment remains extended at +2.1 standard deviations, suggesting there is a lot more downside to go as the #ACATaper takes hold and the U.S. Medical Economy mean reverts.

 

The latest JOLTS and Employment report is consistent with an organic growth slowdown at AHS and implies a sequential decline in adjusted same-store admissions volume at HCA, and is a sign of potential weakness for HOLX’s diagnostic business.

 

Remember Our Healthcare Team's #ACATaper Call? It's Happening. - HC Jolts HCA 6 8

 

To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


Benn Steil: Donald Trump Is a Clear and Present Market Danger

 

Would a Trump presidency be bad news for the global economy and markets? Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods" thinks so. He discusses the disconcerting and adverse consequences a Trump presidency may have with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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