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CHART OF THE DAY | Neck & Neck: Trump vs. Clinton

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Settings aside something coming from left field (or an errant email server), this race is down to The Donald versus Hillary. As of this morning and as you can see in the Chart of the Day, the pollsters are basically showing it to be a statistical tie. To the chagrin of many, the Donald is in it to win it and has a real chance to do so. The next 5 months may have to be the grittiest and most determined of Hillary Clinton’s political life."

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Neck & Neck: Trump vs. Clinton - 06.08.16 EL Chart


Cartoon of the Day: Sobriety Checkpoint Ahead

Cartoon of the Day: Sobriety Checkpoint Ahead - Yellen cart 06.07.2016

 

FYI: The Yellen Fed isn't "data dependent." It's S&P 500 dependent.


Drake: Contextualizing the Biggest Deceleration in Credit Growth Since 2010

 

In this brief discussion, Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake analyzes the trend in consumer credit growth, which has been supporting consumption in the face of slowing income growth. 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Capital Brief: Clinton Clinches But Bernie's Still California Dreamin'

Takeaway: Hillary the Historic; Bernie's California Dream; Gary's Gains

Capital Brief: Clinton Clinches But Bernie's Still California Dreamin' - capital brief

 

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

HILLARY THE HISTORIC

Capital Brief: Clinton Clinches But Bernie's Still California Dreamin' - hillary poster

 

Hillary Clinton has secured enough delegates to claim the Democratic presidential nomination and is poised to become the first female candidate to lead a major party to the White House in U.S. history.  A handful of super delegates pushed Clinton over the finish line of 2,383 ahead of a jampacked day full of primaries. Clinton will call for the  Democrats to unify behind her candidacy as primary season comes to an end today – and she and party leaders expect Bernie Sanders to follow suit.

 

To pad her lead, look for her to pick up a sizeable chunk of delegates in the six states voting today; her campaign hopes that being declared the presumptive nominee 24 hours before CA votes doesn’t suppress turnout and hand a victory to Sanders.

BERNIE’S CALIFORNIA DREAM

Capital Brief: Clinton Clinches But Bernie's Still California Dreamin' - sanders 22

 

Now that Clinton has been declared the presumptive Democratic nominee, this leaves Sanders with a hard decision to make – accept it or fight until the death. Sure, a win in CA would help him pitch his future to superdelegates - but to what end? Sanders’ case is broken - Clinton won a majority of the states, pledged delegates and super delegates - not to mention tens of  thousands of more votes. We think that despite Sanders’ reputation for obstinance, he’ll turn the corner once he realizes the only thing he can do between now and the convention in late July is hobble Clinton and her ability to get a head start on outmaneuvering Donald Trump, not to mention damage the party’s increasing chances at making gains in Congress.

 

No matter what happens in today’s primary, with Democrats adding 2.3 million voters to their ranks in the past four months, CA has become increasingly blue and will be an insurmountable challenge for Trump come November.

GARY’S GAINS

Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson may not have solidified a serious position in the election race yet, but he’s sure on his way – he’s currently polling at 10 percent and gaining ground. Senator Ben Sasse (NE) – who was long considered as a potential third-party nominee – may be hopping on team Johnson. While Trump continues to double down on his hijinks and as Johnson begins to pick up big endorsements and earns media coverage - he’ll climb in the polls – something he needs to happen to be included in the general election debates.


European Equities: Today's Pop Doesn't Buck The Terrible Trend

Takeaway: Italian equities were among the big winners in European markets today but Europe is still slowing and Italy is still crashing.

European Equities: Today's Pop Doesn't Buck The Terrible Trend - Europe Japan cartoon 04.04.2016

 

Investors navel-gazing at the pop in European equities today shouldn't get too excited.

 

Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier today:

 

"Big mean reversion move higher this morning for European Equities (which got hammered again last week); Italian stocks leading +1.99% on the MIB Index (after falling another -3.8% last week to -19% YTD); that’s helping US Equity futures, but #EuropeSlowing is not (yet) the latest bull case for US stocks."

 

Take a look at the chart below of select European equity markets and the respective drawdowns from the 52-week highs in the highlighted column.

 

Bottom Line: Italian and Spanish equities are still crashing...

 

Click image to enlarge.

European Equities: Today's Pop Doesn't Buck The Terrible Trend - european equities 6 7



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