Takeaway: Golden State Warrior, Bernie Weakened; Trump Dials it Back??

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief  - JT   Potomac banner 2

GOLDEN STATE WARRIOR: With wins in CA, NJ, SD and NM last night, Hillary Clinton has now fully assumed the mantle of presumptive Democratic nominee. She has been victorious in a majority of the primaries, garnered three million more votes than her opponents, has 2,497 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders’ 1,663, and has 571 superdelegates to Sanders’ 48. The party will now begin to unify around her with a popular president by her side as she moves into the next phase of her campaign. She and her allies will continue to define and dismantle Donald Trump and his policies; Priorities USA, a pro-Clinton super PAC, has allocated $20 million for an ad buy against Trump – building on her effective foreign policy speech last week pegging him as unfit to be president. Clinton will also need to reassess her trust and likeability factors – repairing and retooling her image will be critical - it will become her advantage when voters decide the “lesser of two evils.”

WEAKENED AT BERNIE’S: Bernie Sanders is all but out of the race – but that doesn’t mean he’s dropping out...In order to be viable for the nomination at this juncture - Sanders’ only option is to flip superdelegates – something that remains completely unrealistic (he’s flipped one in six months). He and some in his inner circle have been hard-pressed to accept his fate, but nonetheless he says he will not relent until the convention. With Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement of Clinton and President Obama’s expected soon, Sanders risks becoming a pariah in his party the longer he holds out.

TRUMP DIALS IT BACK?: The criticism over Trump’s comments on the impartiality of a federal judge with Mexican heritage continues in force, but he’s attempting to take a step back and assess it from a different angle – classifying his remarks as “misconstrued.” Though Trump did not apologize or show regret in his statement, it’s a sign that he’s reassessing given the universal condemnation he’s invited - and that’s just from his fellow party comrades.  He may want to change the subject, but we think he may not have the luxury of doing so this time around.

“A BETTER WAY”: Speaker Ryan rolled out a wide-ranging conservative agenda just a few weeks ahead of the Republican convention in July. The product of several task forces and dozens of meetings with House members outlines conservative proposals for jobs and the economy, taxes, health care, national security, constitutional authority, and poverty. The plan is a byproduct  of the autopsy of the failed 2012 Romney campaign as well as Ryan’s vision for an optimistic agenda for his Congressional colleagues and the party writ large. Ultimately, in the face of Trump terrorizing the party – the proposal gives Republicans a platform to run on in the fall, trying to put the Republican party back on track.

UNDER THE RADAR: With the spotlight on the main presidential event, CA voters sent two Democratic candidates to a Senate seat runoff in November– shutting Republicans out in a sign of the party’s diminishing support in America’s most populous state. CA hasn’t elected a Republican Senator since 1988 – in fact – it hasn’t elected any Republican candidate to any statewide office since 2006. We continue to reiterate our view that CA will be bluer than ever. Trump is delusional if he thinks he can be competitive in CA come November.

DISMANTLING DODD-FRANK: Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (TX) and “The Financial Choice Act” takes a shot at reforming Dodd-Frank and aims to dismantle portions of the regulatory overhaul. The plan has little hope of passing Congress this year – but is poised to influence both the presidential debates as well as the Republican Congressional agenda. The bill aims to replace the financial reform law’s “orderly liquidation authority,” repeal the Volcker Rule, restructure the CFPB, and the FSOC from designating any non-banks as “systemically important.”

NOC SEEING THE PINCH OF THE BOMBER WIN?: Check out our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen. Emo Gardner’s insight on Northrop Grumman CEO's statement that he is "biasing more of our capital" inside NOC could be early indicator of future reduced margins as result of LRS-B win “NOC Seeing the Pinch of the Bomber Win?

FIRST OF MANY HHS BUDGET UPDATES; POSITIVE-MA PLANS, DRUGS & SERVICES; NEGATIVE- INSURERS: Our Healthcare Policy Advisor Emily Evans shares her insight on a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee approving the FY 17 HHS spending bill and more “First of Many HHS Budget Updates; Positive-MA Plans, Drugs & Services; Negative-Insurers

BREXIT: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?: Join us for a call today with Alexander Nicoll, a consulting member of the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, as he discusses the events leading up to the UK vote and what the outcome of the vote spells for the UK and EU. Please email us for dial-in information.