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INSIGHT: The Limits Of Global Monetary Policy via Council on Foreign Relation's Dr. Benn Steil

Takeaway: "I wish these guys [at the Fed] would stop being rock stars and be more honest about what they don't know."

"A record 23 countries — accounting for a quarter of world GDP — now have central-bank policy rates of zero or less.  A further six — including the United States — have policy rates of 1 percent or less," write Dr. Benn Steil and Emma Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations in a recent column for PBS. 

 

It's a thought-provoking read which calls into question the efficacy of additional, unconventional monetary policy measures. Steil and Smith conclude:

 

"In short, the world economy is running on monetary fumes. We had better hope it picks up steam on its own, because policymakers are unlikely to be of much further help."

 

Dr. Steil and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discussed the significant challenges facing investors as global central bankers continue to manipulate markets in a recent installment of Real Conversations on HedgeyeTV. "I wish these guys [at the Fed] would stop being rock stars and be more honest about what they don't know," Steil remarked during the interview.

 

We wholeheartedly agree. 

 

Watch the complementary video replay below.

 


What Volume Tells Us About The (Lack Of) Conviction In The U.S. Stock Market

Takeaway: The lack of conviction in each up day in stocks is clear with U.S. total equity volume down -12% yesterday versus its three month average.

What Volume Tells Us About The (Lack Of) Conviction In The U.S. Stock Market - Volume cartoon 08.12.2014 

 

Upon closer inspection, each up day in U.S. equity markets reveals a telling lack of conviction. 

 

Investors express confidence in the direction the market is headed via the amount of trading volume on U.S. exchanges. Lately, volume has all-but disappeared.

 

Total U.S. equity volume was down -12% yesterday versus its three month average. This trend, of declining volume on rising prices, has continued for some time now. Interestingly, volume has been accelerating on down days. 

 

 

Understanding the intimate relationship between price, volume and volatility (how we manage risk here at Hedgeye) is essential for any investor. In the video below, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough gives a brief tutorial on the different permutations of price, volume and volatility with insights about what the current environment is telling us.

 

Spoiler Alert!

 

Today's U.S. stock setup isn't good.

 


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 6 7

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 6 7

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 6 7

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 6 7

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 6 7


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

The Repercussions Of Yellen Fed Burning The Buck & How To Trade It

The Repercussions Of Yellen Fed Burning The Buck & How To Trade It - burn buck

 

With the Yellen Fed intent on burning the buck, the U.S. dollar continues to drive asset reflation.

 

Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier today:

 

"Not surprisingly, USD oversold signal registers overbought signals in CRB Index, Gold, and Copper – WTI’s overbought level right around $49.99/barrel (CRB Index overbought level = 193); Copper backing off 1st, as it’s the weakest of the reflation hands short-term traders are willing to hold."

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Breaking Down The Cycle's Toughest Earnings Growth Comps

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... And that’s really the point on raising Cash. I have no problem buying stocks when they are on sale. But when they are at the top-end of my current SP500 risk range (2049-2116) AND the latest bull case is one of the easiest yet to refute, I get out.

 

As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 35 in our Q2 Macro Themes Deck) the toughest comps (comparative period) for #LateCycle Sector Earnings Growth is the 2nd quarter. That’s because Q2 of 2015 was the peak."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Breaking Down The Cycle's Toughest Earnings Growth Comps - 06.07.16 Chart


Cartoon of the Day: Yellen & Screamin'

Cartoon of the Day: Yellen & Screamin' - Hawk dove cartoon 06.06.2016

 

The mercurial Fed has pivoted from Hawkish (in December) to Dovish (March/April) to Hawkish (May). With today's speech, market consensus now perceives Yellen & Co. as flipping back to Dovish here in June. Clearly, the Fed is perpetuating a massive amount of volatility in macro markets.


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

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