Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
Hillary Clinton needs less than 30 delegates to secure the nomination – a sure bet after looking to amass a large chunk of delegates in tomorrow’s primaries in NJ, CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, and SD. All in, CA remains the biggest prize as Clinton and Bernie Sanders remain neck and neck.
If she’s able to edge it out, she’ll hand Sanders a lethal blow – but then what’s in it for Sanders? Sure – he’s corralled and electrified the masses, but his future steps are immensely important. Clinton’s lead in the general election polls over Donald Trump remains slim and when Sanders decides to hang it up – expect Clinton’s numbers to climb – but she’ll need his help getting there.
The Donald Trump trust factor may be the biggest issue facing the Republican party this year and though many Republican leaders have taken their seats aboard the Trump train they know there will be many opportunities for a derailment or two.
Senior Republicans are calling Trump’s recent criticism of a Hispanic judge the last straw after promising to make an effort to “lighten” his choice of words when speaking of minorities as Goldwater flashbacks keep them up at nights. If Republicans believe they have a fighting chance this November, they’ll need to mitigate their trust in Trump to do the right thing – and fast.
With summer recess nearing and an unfinished budget still looming, Congress returns this week to a full plate. Zika funding has been sitting before Congress for more than three months – House and Senate bills are yet to combine due to political reasons. Puerto Rico is still sinking but sees a glimmer of hope as legislation will hit the Rules Committee later this week, followed by a vote in the House later in the week. With this hanging over Congress’ head, remember – it’s also Appropriations season and we’ve only got five weeks until Congress skips town for a loonnnngg summer recess.