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CHART OF THE DAY: Yikes! A Look At How Consensus Is Positioned

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... Look at last week’s CFTC futures and options net positioning:

  1. SP500 (Index + E-mini) +56,081 net LONG contracts = +2.16x (leaning bullish on a 1yr z-score)
  2. 10YR Treasury -159,930 net SHORT contracts = -2.66x (leaning bearish on a 1yr z-score)

Really? It’s one thing for The Bull on bonds to book some gains when Janet tells him she’s gonna hike (until she sees the data she hasn’t forecasted)… but to buy SPY and short TLT on that? I guess that’s why performance out there is not good."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Yikes! A Look At How Consensus Is Positioned - 06.06.16 EL Chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. Benn Steil: Mercurial Central Bankers Screwing Markets (6/4/2016)

 

  

In this edition of “Real Conversations,” Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods" discusses the significant challenges facing investors as global central bankers continue to manipulate and flummox markets with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.  “This environment has never been more complicated for investors," explains Dr. Steil. “They can no longer count on what monetary policy makers are telling them.”

 

2. Does a Third-Party Candidate Derail Trump? (6/3/2016)

 

 

In this edition of Washington To Wall Street, Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor and Director of Research Daryl Jones discuss what a third-party Libertarian presidential bid may mean for Donald Trump’s Oval Office aspirations. 

 

3. What The Media Missed At Today’s OPEC Meeting (6/2/2016)

 

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy analyst Joe McMonigle called in from the OPEC meeting in Vienna to discuss why Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned with $50 oil.

 

4. McCullough: The Call Is Clear, Raise Cash (5/31/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough issues a stern directive to investors and explains the reasons why.


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Sputtering (6/3/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - jobs cartoon 06.03.2016

 

Today we learned that the U.S. economy added a paltry 38,000 jobs in the month prior. Our Macro team nailed it.

 

#EmploymentSlowing

 

2. Today's OPEC Meeting (6/2/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Saudi cartoon 06.02.2016

 

Nothing like $50 oil to create a positive atmosphere at the OPEC meeting in Vienna.

 

Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle, who attended the meeting, has said for months not to expect any big action at the June meeting. But Joe said he was looking for signs of potential action at the next OPEC meeting in December after continued reductions in non-OPEC production.

 

Joe believes the Saudis offered up such a sign on Wednesday when a "senior gulf official" said the Kingdom was "open" to some action to stabilize prices. As a result, for the first time in two years, we think a policy change could be under consideration at the end of the year.

 

3. BLIND FAITH (6/1/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed Hike cartoon 06.01.2016

 

The Yellen Fed seems oblivious to the idea that they are considering hiking rates into an economic slowdown.

 

4. Janet's Mess (5/31/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Hawk or dove cartoon 05.31.2016

 

"On Friday at Harvard, Janet Yellen said that, based on her estimate of where the US economy is at, the Federal Reserve will “probably” raise rates in June or July," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "Ok. What if she raises and her estimates are wrong (again)?"


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 6th of June through the 10th of June is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 06.03.16 Week Ahead


Benn Steil: Mercurial Central Bankers Screwing Markets

 

In this edition of “Real Conversations,” Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods" discusses the significant challenges facing investors as global central bankers continue to manipulate and flummox markets with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.  “This environment has never been more complicated for investors,” explains Dr. Steil. “They can no longer count on what monetary policy makers are telling them.”


The Good Stuff: Reports and News Articles you May Have Missed This Week

Takeaway: The best of the best: our favorite reading material from the week of May 30th.

Happy Friday. Each week we read a lot of stuff so you don't have to. Below is our list of the best of the best this week and a final word from Jeff Buckley for those of you that love a little guitar artistry.

 

The Affordable Care Act

In a Secret Meeting, Revelations on the Battle Over Health Care, New York Times, May 30, 2016

  

Drugs

The FDA isn't listening to patients pleading for drug approvals. Nor should it. Stat News, June 2, 2016

Sharp Rise in Cancer drug Spending Forecast, but Access remains a Problem, Stat News, June 2, 2016

Fearing Drugs’ Rare Side Effects, Millions Take Their Chances With Osteoporosis, June 1, 2016

Judge orders Washington Medicaid to provide hepatitis C drug, Modern Healthcare, May 30, 2016 <GLD>

 

Health Care Services:  

Does The Site Of Care Change The Cost Of Care?, Health Affairs, June 2, 2016

Nonprofits' Tax-Exemption Battle Moves to the Courts, Governing, June 2, 2016

Unpaid, stressed, and confused: patients are the health care system's free labor, Vox, June 1, 2016

The U.S. Health Disadvantage And The Role Of Spending, Health Affairs, June 1, 2016

After prompting from high-profile docs, CMS opens up CPC+ to ACOs, Mobihealth News, May 31, 2016 

 

Health Care IT

ONC and CMS: We're at a critical inflection point for EHRs, interoperability, HealthcareIT News, May 31, 2016 <ATHN> <CERN>

Athenahealth seeks to "unbreak" healthcare with the help of humor, MedCity News, June 1, 2016 <ATHN>

 

Insurance

Why lower ACA exchange enrollment may not be a bad thing, Modern healthcare, june 2, 2016 <All Health Insurers>

Health insurance mega-deals aren't winning over a key party: large employers, Modern Healthcare, June 1, 2016 <HUM> <AET> ATHM> <CI>

Advanced Analytics: A Triple Win for Payers, Healthcare Finance, June 1, 2016

UnitedHealth To Exit California’s Obamacare Market, California Healthline, May 31, 2016 

 

Random Miscellany

Scientists name praying mantis species after Ginsburg, The Hill, June 1, 2016

 

Shameless Sell Promotion

Maternity Tracker Update, June 2, 2016

HOLX 3D Update Falling Short QTD, June 1, 2016

 

Last week we asked if we could have an Hallelujah. This week we are giving you one. In memory of the late, great Jeff Buckley who died 19 years ago this week in Memphis:

 

 

Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week


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