CLINTON'S CONUNDRUM: Hillary Clinton needs less than 30 delegates to secure the nomination – a sure bet after looking to amass a large chunk of delegates in tomorrow’s primaries in NJ, CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, and SD. All in, CA remains the biggest prize as Clinton and Bernie Sanders remain neck and neck. If she’s able to edge it out, she’ll hand Sanders a lethal blow – but then what’s in it for Sanders? Sure – he’s corralled and electrified the masses, but his future steps are immensely important. Clinton’s lead in the general election polls over Donald Trump remains slim and when Sanders decides to hang it up – expect Clinton’s numbers to climb – but she’ll need his help getting there.
TRUSTING TRUMP?: The Donald Trump trust factor may be the biggest issue facing the Republican party this year and though many Republican leaders have taken their seats aboard the Trump train they know there will be many opportunities for a derailment or two. Senior Republicans are calling Trump’s recent criticism of a Hispanic judge the last straw after promising to make an effort to “lighten” his choice of words when speaking of minorities as Goldwater flashbacks keep them up at nights. If Republicans believe they have a fighting chance this November, they’ll need to mitigate their trust in Trump to do the right thing – and fast.
PROCRASTINATION NATION: With summer recess nearing and an unfinished budget still looming, Congress returns this week to a full plate. Zika funding has been sitting before Congress for more than three months – House and Senate bills are yet to combine due to political reasons. Puerto Rico is still sinking but sees a glimmer of hope as legislation will hit the Rules Committee later this week, followed by a vote in the House later in the week. With this hanging over Congress’ head, remember – it’s also Appropriations season and we’ve only got five weeks until Congress skips town for a loonnnngg summer recess.
BERNIE BANGS THE DRUM: Although Bernie Sanders will not be able to nab the Democratic presidential nomination, he’s created quite an iconic image that he could certainly leverage when he returns to the legislative arena. Sanders has long been known for his opposition to bipartisan agreements, but without public support, his tiffs remained meaningless. Look for Sanders to ruffle feathers on the Puerto Rico debt deal and other landmark bills in the future.
REMEMBER RUBIO?: Once revered as a Republican “golden boy,” Marco Rubio finds himself at a crossroads about his future. His fall from grace during the presidential primary was relatively quick and unexpected, and his announced retirement from the Senate premature. If Republicans want to retain his FL seat - and the Senate - they’re going to need to do a better job of convincing him to stay .
VIETNAM, TPP, AND GEOSTRATEGY IN ASIA: Our Geopolitical Analyst LTG Dan Christman offered his insights into Vietnam, TPP, and Geostrategy in Asia “Vietnam, TPP, and Geostrategy in Asia”
PENTAGON CONFIRMS IT STILL INTENDS TO BUY 2,443 JOINT STRIKE FIGHTERS: Check out our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen. Emo Gardner’s insight on the Pentagon’s confirmation to Congress that it intends to buy 2,443 F-35s through 2038 “LMT, UTX, NOC, BAE, TXT: Pentagon Confirms It Still Intends to Buy 2,443 Joint Strike Fighters”
BREXIT: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?: Join us for a call this Wednesday with Alexander Nicoll, a consulting member of the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, as he discusses the events leading up to the UK vote and what the outcome of the vote spells for the UK and EU. Please email us for dial-in information.