• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: Yesterday, markets predicted a more than 50% chance of a July rate hike. Now, rate hike expectations don't get above 50% until December.

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - Jobs.rate hike cartoon 11.04.2015

The #JobsBomb (a.k.a. the May Non-Farm Payroll number of 38,000) just shocked Old Wall consensus.

How do we know?

Take a look at investor's most recent expectations for a Fed rate hike. Yesterday, markets were predicting a more than 50% chance of a July rate hike. Now, rate hike expectations don't get above 50% until December.

What a difference a day can make...

6/2/2016

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - rate hike prob 6 2

6/3/2016

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - rate hike prob 6 3

We're not surprised. We've been saying #EmploymentSlowing for a while now.

When will the Old Wall learn?