The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 6th of June through the 10th of June is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 06.03.16 Week Ahead

Benn Steil: Mercurial Central Bankers Screwing Markets


In this edition of “Real Conversations,” Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods" discusses the significant challenges facing investors as global central bankers continue to manipulate and flummox markets with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.  “This environment has never been more complicated for investors,” explains Dr. Steil. “They can no longer count on what monetary policy makers are telling them.”

The Good Stuff: Reports and News Articles you May Have Missed This Week

Takeaway: The best of the best: our favorite reading material from the week of May 30th.

Happy Friday. Each week we read a lot of stuff so you don't have to. Below is our list of the best of the best this week and a final word from Jeff Buckley for those of you that love a little guitar artistry.


The Affordable Care Act

In a Secret Meeting, Revelations on the Battle Over Health Care, New York Times, May 30, 2016



The FDA isn't listening to patients pleading for drug approvals. Nor should it. Stat News, June 2, 2016

Sharp Rise in Cancer drug Spending Forecast, but Access remains a Problem, Stat News, June 2, 2016

Fearing Drugs’ Rare Side Effects, Millions Take Their Chances With Osteoporosis, June 1, 2016

Judge orders Washington Medicaid to provide hepatitis C drug, Modern Healthcare, May 30, 2016 <GLD>


Health Care Services:  

Does The Site Of Care Change The Cost Of Care?, Health Affairs, June 2, 2016

Nonprofits' Tax-Exemption Battle Moves to the Courts, Governing, June 2, 2016

Unpaid, stressed, and confused: patients are the health care system's free labor, Vox, June 1, 2016

The U.S. Health Disadvantage And The Role Of Spending, Health Affairs, June 1, 2016

After prompting from high-profile docs, CMS opens up CPC+ to ACOs, Mobihealth News, May 31, 2016 


Health Care IT

ONC and CMS: We're at a critical inflection point for EHRs, interoperability, HealthcareIT News, May 31, 2016 <ATHN> <CERN>

Athenahealth seeks to "unbreak" healthcare with the help of humor, MedCity News, June 1, 2016 <ATHN>



Why lower ACA exchange enrollment may not be a bad thing, Modern healthcare, june 2, 2016 <All Health Insurers>

Health insurance mega-deals aren't winning over a key party: large employers, Modern Healthcare, June 1, 2016 <HUM> <AET> ATHM> <CI>

Advanced Analytics: A Triple Win for Payers, Healthcare Finance, June 1, 2016

UnitedHealth To Exit California’s Obamacare Market, California Healthline, May 31, 2016 


Random Miscellany

Scientists name praying mantis species after Ginsburg, The Hill, June 1, 2016


Shameless Sell Promotion

Maternity Tracker Update, June 2, 2016

HOLX 3D Update Falling Short QTD, June 1, 2016


Last week we asked if we could have an Hallelujah. This week we are giving you one. In memory of the late, great Jeff Buckley who died 19 years ago this week in Memphis:



Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week

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Cartoon of the Day: Sputtering

Cartoon of the Day: Sputtering - jobs cartoon 06.03.2016


Today we learned that the U.S. economy added a paltry 38,000 jobs in the month prior. Our Macro team nailed it.



Does a Third-Party Candidate Derail Trump?


In this edition of Washington To Wall Street, Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor and Director of Research Daryl Jones discuss what a third-party Libertarian presidential bid may mean for Donald Trump’s Oval Office aspirations.

5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again)

5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - jobs cartoon 10.05.2015


"Less than six months into the year, the Fed has been hawkish, pivoted to dovish, pivoted to hawkish and will now pivot to dovish," Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale wrote on Twitter earlier today.




Today's #JobsBomb spells trouble for those flippant Fed heads. Here's why.


Stepping back a moment to better contextualize today's Jobs Report in both delta and differential terms, here are two charts from Dale:


5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - nfp 6 3


5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - nfp 6 3  2




"If you think this heinous Jobs Report is a one-off, you are literally paid to be willfully blind to #TheCycle," Dale writes. Take a look at what Jobless Claims data has long been signaling (i.e. we're about 3-6 months of improving claims data away from recession).


5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - nfp 6 3  3


And here's the KEY chart that shows Non-Farm Payrolls rolling off the February 2015 cycle peak in rate-of-change terms (i.e. #NotGood). 


5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - nonfarm payroll 6 3


In other words, as the linear, labor economists at the Fed continue to witness deteriorating jobs data, it will become increasingly difficult to sell the "all is good" U.S. economic narrative.


In fact, the market is already pricing in a more dovish Fed. Look at the latest implied rate hike probability reading versus where it was yesterday (note the probability of a July rate hike was nearly cut in half in the matter of a day):


5 Charts: Why Today's Jobs Report Confirms The Past-Peak Trend (Yet Again) - rate hike prob 72


We'll take this time to reiterate what we've been saying for a while now...


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