RYAN RELIEVES REPUBLICANS: Speaker Paul Ryan endorsed presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in an op-ed published to his hometown newspaper late Thursday afternoon. In his note, Ryan explains that he and Trump have more common ground - than not - highlighting that Hillary Clinton represents the exact agenda that Republicans aim to fix. We think Ryan’s move may have more to do with projecting a united Republican front in an all out effort to save the Senate and ensure the House doesn’t come close to being imperiled.
CLINTON’S CRUSHING CRITIQUE: Hillary Clinton spent her Thursday afternoon in San Diego casting the presumptive Republican nominee as a “historic mistake.” Clinton went on to bash Trump’s foreign policy plan as not even a plan. Or an idea. Or a thought. She feels Trump has thrived on a series of bizarre rants, personal feuds, and outright lies – making him unfit for office. Clinton laid out her own agenda as well - all the while clinging to a slight lead over Bernie Sanders ahead of the CA primary this Tuesday.
LIBERTARIAN LEVERAGE: Gary Johnson may not be a household name, but he’s sure made headlines over the past few days. In order to make the debate stage with the Republican and Democratic nominees, a candidate must be polling at 15 percent or above. As of now, Johnson lies below the threshold hovering around 10 percent - not a bad start as he’s only been the nominee for a little over a week and is just starting to raise money. The 2013 VA gubernatorial race is still on the minds of many pundits, where current Governor Terry McAuliffe edged out Republican Ken Cuccinelli - while the third-party, Libertarian challenger racked up a modest six percent, handing the Governor’s mansion over to McAuliffe.
“DEBT TRAPS”: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has proposed a rule that could ultimately kill the payday-lending industry. Although the industry has thrived over the past decade, critics have accused lenders of unfairly targeting low-income workers and minorities. The proposed rule aims to limit how frequently borrowers can get loans and requires lenders to verify the borrowers can repay the money without taking on new debt, escaping the so-called debt trap.
LOOK FOR THE UNION LABEL: In most elections, Unions lean Democrat, but this year, some are expected to be caught in the gravitational and protectionist pull of Donald Trump. Trump, if not effectively countered, may draw an unusually large number of union voters in a general election matchup. This could, in turn, bolster the Republican vote in swing states like OH, PA, MI and WI - all of which President Obama won twice.
EXECUTIVE OVERREACH: The Department of Justice has independently dished out funds to activist groups to provide financial counseling to victims of the financial crisis through legal settlements with big banks – it mandates that penalty money is “donated” to nonprofits that allegedly aid consumers and bolster neighborhoods. House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte and Republican lawmakers have backed a bill to prohibit the DOJ from doing so – the bill was marked up last month with a two-thirds vote. It’s opposed by Democrats, but garners support from members of the Appropriations Committee – expect fireworks in the coming months.
IRAN IS BACK - MORE SUPPLY COMING TO THE MARKET: Saudi Arabia's new Energy Minister was the first to arrive in Vienna on Monday for yesterday's OPEC meeting while Iran's oil minister was the last to arrive walking into his hotel near 11 pm on Wednesday. Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle was at the hotel along with the press corps to greet the minister who announced that Iran's May production was 3.8 million b/d and expects to be at 4 million b/d "very soon.” The minister also reported that crude exports were now at 2 million b/d which translates into 800,000 b/d since nuclear sanctions were lifted and in line with Joe's forecast. The minister added that Iran's production goal is to get to 5 million b/d. Iran may have been the last to arrive in Vienna but it wants to be the first OPEC member to bring most spare capacity to the market.
BREXIT: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?: Join us for a call next Wednesday with Alexander Nicoll, a consulting member of the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, as he discusses the events leading up to the UK vote and what the outcome of the vote spells for the UK and EU. Please email us for dial-in information.
